What is the main message of Thinking in Bets?

The main message of Thinking in Bets is to make better decisions by embracing uncertainty and using the principles of poker.

How long does it take to read Thinking in Bets?

The reading time for Thinking in Bets varies, but it can be read in a few hours. The Blinkist summary can be read in 15 minutes.

Who is the author of Thinking in Bets?

The author of Thinking in Bets is Annie Duke.

Management & Leadership

Thinking in Bets Book Summary - Thinking in Bets Book explained in key points

Listen to the Intro

00:00

Thinking in Bets summary

Name: Thinking in Bets
Rating: 4.4 (346 reviews)
Author: Annie Duke

Annie Duke

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

4.4 (346 ratings)

21 mins

Brief summary

"Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke shows how to make better decisions, using the principles of poker. It explores the limitations of human reasoning and how to think probabilistically to improve outcomes in uncertain situations.

Topics

Effectiveness

Table of Contents

Thinking in Bets
Summary of 7 key ideas

Audio & text in the Blinkist app

Key idea 1 of 7

What’s in it for me? Learn how to work around your neurological wiring.

There are very few sure things in life, so when we make decisions, we play the odds. Whether it’s what to study, which job to apply for or which house to buy, the outcomes of our decisions rely on many other factors. It’s simply not possible to know every single relevant variable when we make up our minds.

Like poker, life-changing decisions are largely based on luck. But calling it all “luck” is a bit disingenuous – it’s more like a game of probabilities. What’s more, the decisions we make are linked to the ways our brains are neurologically wired.

So what can you control? Well, probably more than you think.

With lessons grounded in poker and cognitive psychology, these blinks explain how it all starts with thinking in bets.

You’ll find out

why hard-luck stories are a waste of time;
why car accidents are always someone else’s fault; and
how time travel might be our best tool for making decisions.

Human minds tend to confuse decisions with their outcomes, which makes it hard to see mistakes clearly.

Super Bowl XLIX ended in controversy. With 26 seconds left in the game, everyone expected Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll to tell his quarterback, Russell Wilson, to hand the ball off. Instead, he told Wilson to pass. The ball was intercepted, the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl, and, by the next day, public opinion about Carroll had turned nasty. The headline in the Seattle Times read: “Seahawks Lost Because of the Worst Call in Super Bowl History”!

But it wasn’t really Carroll’s decision that was being judged. Given the circumstances, it was actually a fairly reasonable call. It was the fact that it didn’t work.

Poker players call this tendency to confuse the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome resulting, and it’s a dangerous tendency. A bad decision can lead to a good outcome, after all, and good decisions can lead to bad outcomes. No one who’s driven home drunk has woken up the next day and seen it as a good decision just because they didn’t get into an accident.

In fact, decisions are rarely 100 percent right or wrong. Life isn’t like that. Life is like poker, a game of incomplete information – since you never know what cards the other players are holding – and luck. Our decision-making is like poker players’ bets. We bet on future outcomes based on what we believe is most likely to occur.

So why not look at it this way? If our decisions are bets, we can start to let go of the idea that we’re 100 percent “right” or “wrong," and start to say, “I’m not sure.” This opens us up to thinking in terms of probability, which is far more useful.

Volunteering at a charity poker tournament, the author once explained to the crowd that player A’s cards would win 76 percent of the time, giving the other player a 24 percent chance to win. When player B won, a spectator yelled out that she’d been wrong.

But, she explained, she’d said that player B’s hand would win 24 percent of the time. She wasn’t wrong. It was just that the actual outcome fell within that 24 percent margin.

If we want to seek out truth, we have to work around our hardwired tendency to believe what we hear.

We all want to make good decisions. But saying, “I believe X to be the best option” first requires good-quality beliefs. Good-quality beliefs are ideas about X that are informed and well thought-out. But we can’t expect to form good-quality beliefs with lazy thinking. Instead, we have to be willing to do some work in the form of truth-seeking. That means we have to strive for truth and objectivity, even when something doesn’t align with the beliefs we hold.

Unfortunately, truth-seeking runs contrary to the ways we’re naturally wired. For our evolutionary ancestors, questioning new beliefs could be dangerous, so it was low priority. If you hear a lion rustling in the grass, for example, you’re less likely to stop and analyze the situation objectively, and more likely to just run!

We can learn a lot from outcomes, but it’s difficult to know which have something to teach us.

The best way to learn is often by reviewing our mistakes. Likewise, if we want to improve our future outcomes, we’ll have to do some outcome fielding. Outcome fielding is looking at outcomes to see what we can learn from them.

Some outcomes we can attribute to luck and forget about – they were out of our control anyway. It’s the outcomes that seem to have resulted primarily from our decisions that we should learn from. After analyzing those decisions, we can refine and update any beliefs that led to our initial bet.

To become more objective about outcomes, we need to change our habits.

Phil Ivey is one of the best poker players in the world. He’s admired by his peers and has been incredibly successful in every type of poker. One big reason for this? Phil Ivey has good habits.

Habits work in neurological loops that have three parts: cue, routine and reward. As Pulitzer-prize-winning reporter Charles Duhigg points out in his book The Power of Habit, the key to changing a habit is to work with this structure, leaving the cue and reward alone but changing the routine.

We can improve our decision-making by being part of a group, but it needs to be the right kind of group.

We’ve all got blind spots, which makes truth-seeking hard. But it’s a little easier when we enlist the help of a group. After all, others can often pick out our errors more easily than we can.

But to be effective, a group dedicated to examining decisions isn’t like any other. It has to have a clear focus, a commitment to objectivity and open-mindedness, and a clear charter that all members understand.

To work together productively, a group needs CUDOS.

Shared commitment and clear guidelines help define a good-quality decision-examining group. But once you’ve got that group, how do you work within it?

You can start by giving each other CUDOS.

To make better decisions, we need to spend some time in the future.

Comedian Jerry Seinfeld describes himself as a “Night Guy.” He likes to stay up late at night and doesn’t worry about getting by on too little sleep. That’s Morning Jerry’s problem, not Night Jerry. No wonder Morning Jerry hates Night Jerry so much – Night Jerry always screws him over.

It’s a funny description, but temporal discounting – making decisions that favor our immediate desires at the expense of our future self – is something we all do.

Want to see all full key ideas from Thinking in Bets?

Key ideas in Thinking in Bets

More knowledge in less time

Read or listen

Get the key ideas from nonfiction bestsellers in minutes, not hours.

Find your next read

Get book lists curated by experts and personalized recommendations.

Shortcasts ^New

We’ve teamed up with podcast creators to bring you key insights from podcasts.

What is Thinking in Bets about?

In any situation, the best decision isn’t guaranteed to work out, and even terrible decisions can sometimes turn out to be the right ones. So when things go wrong, who do we blame and why? And what about when things go right? In Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018), poker champion, author and business consultant Annie Duke shows how our addiction to outcomes leads to irrational thinking and the confusion of luck with skill.

Thinking in Bets Review

Thinking in Bets (2018) by Annie Duke is a thought-provoking book that challenges our decision-making process. Here's why this book is worth reading:

Packed with practical strategies, it teaches readers how to improve decision-making by thinking like a poker player.
Through compelling examples and insightful anecdotes, the book explores the role of luck and uncertainty in our lives, making it a fascinating read.
With its engaging storytelling and the author's expert knowledge in psychology and decision science, the book keeps readers entertained while imparting valuable wisdom.

Best quote from Thinking in Bets

Statements of science are not of what is true and what is not true, but . . . what is known to different degrees of certainty . . . – Richard Feynman

—Annie Duke

Who should read Thinking in Bets?

Gamblers
Decision-phobes
Anyone who wants to stop making the same mistakes over and over

About the Author

For over two decades, writer, coach and speaker Annie Duke was one of the world’s top poker players. In 2004, she earned a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet ahead of 234 other players, and in 2010 she won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship.

Duke holds a master’s degree in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also completed her doctoral coursework before beginning her career in poker. She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of Poker, was published in 2005.

Categories with Thinking in Bets

Management & Leadership Psychology

Book summaries like Thinking in Bets

How to Decide

Annie Duke

Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win

24 min

4.1

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

Intuition or deliberation? Where you can (and can't) trust your brain

How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work

22 min

4.5

Stumbling on Happiness

Daniel Gilbert

The psychology of thinking about the future

The New Psychology of Success

Enjoy Your Favourite Food and Boost Your Gut Health with The Diversity Diet

18 min

4.4

The Idea Is the Easy Part

Brian Dovey

Myths and Realities of the Startup World

Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World

The Psychology of Persuasion

33 min

4.5

The Warren Buffett Way

Robert G. Hagstrom

Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor

Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence

24 min

4.5

The Art of Clear Thinking

Hasard Lee

A Stealth Fighter Pilot's Timeless Rules for Making Tough Decisions

12 More Rules for Life

The Science and Art of Longevity

20 min

4.3

Getting The Love You Want

How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant

8 min

4.2

Super Thinking

Gabriel Weinberg with Lauren McCann

The Big Book of Mental Models

22 min

4.3

A Wealth of Common Sense

Ben Carlson

Why Simplicity Trumps Complexity in Any Investment Plan

Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson

Unorthodox advice for growing companies

Escape 9–5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich

28 min

4.2

The Paradox of Choice

You Have More Time Than You Think

21 min

4.2

The Great Mental Models

Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien

General Thinking Concepts

A Guide to What Never Changes

17 min

4.2

The Five Elements of Effective Thinking

Edward B. Burger and Michael Starbird

Five ways to make better decisions.

22 min

4.2

The Things You Can See Only When You Slow Down

Haemin Sunim

How to Be Calm in a Busy World

16 min

4.5

Your Journey to Financial Freedom

Jamila Souffrant

A Step-By-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness

A Flaw in Human Judgment

The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know

Work Less, Worry Less, Succeed More, Enjoy More

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in 7 Weeks

A Strategic Program for Overcoming Procrastination and Enjoying Guilt-Free Play

20 min

4.4

Numbers Rule Your World

Kaiser Fung

The Hidden Influence of Probability and Statistics on Everything You Do

12 min

3.8

The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck

Mark Manson

A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life

22 min

4.3

The Pursuit of Happyness

Chris Gardner

An NAACP Image Award Winner

16 min

The Almanack of Naval Ravikant

Eric Jorgenson

A Guide to Wealth and Happiness

23 min

4.6

Good Strategy, Bad Strategy

Richard Rumelt

The Difference and Why It Matters

What the Brain Reveals About Our Power To Change Others

How the Best Leaders Make Everyone Smarter

An explanation of Jung's theories about archetypes and the unconscious

A Quest for Identity and Purpose

20 min

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Families

Stephen R. Covey

Creating Powerful & Positive Relationships Within the Family

21 min

4.5

How to Talk to Anyone

Leil Lowndes

92 Little Tricks for Big Success in Relationships

25 min

4.2

Less Doing, More Living

Ari Meisel

Make Everything in Life Easier

21 min

3.7

Wherever You Go, There You Are

Jon Kabat-Zinn

Mindfulness Meditation In Everyday Life

Learn Anything and Everything (Starting with Shakespeare and Dickens)

9 min

4.1

People ❤️ Blinkist

Sven O.

It's highly addictive to get core insights on personally relevant topics without repetition or triviality. Added to that the apps ability to suggest kindred interests opens up a foundation of knowledge.

Thi Viet Quynh N.

Great app. Good selection of book summaries you can read or listen to while commuting. Instead of scrolling through your social media news feed, this is a much better way to spend your spare time in my opinion.

Jonathan A.

Life changing. The concept of being able to grasp a book's main point in such a short time truly opens multiple opportunities to grow every area of your life at a faster rate.

Renee D.

Great app. Addicting. Perfect for wait times, morning coffee, evening before bed. Extremely well written, thorough, easy to use.