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Zusammenfassung von How to Decide

Name: How to Decide
Rating: 4.4 (295 reviews)
Author: Annie Duke

Annie Duke

Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

4.4 (295 Bewertungen)

27 Min.

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How to Decide
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What’s in it for me? Improve your decision-making processes and elicit honest feedback.

Most people don’t have a method for making decisions, which is why most decisions end up being a shot in the dark. It makes sense. After all, we’re often told to go with our gut, or to use a tool, like the popular pros and cons list, to decide on something. The research, though, points in another direction.

We make so many decisions each day and it’s important to understand why we reach the conclusions we do. These blinks help mitigate the feeling of voodoo that surrounds the world of decision-making. They offer practical suggestions to improve the way we analyze our decisions so we continue to learn from them and make stronger ones in the future.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

the difference between low-impact and high-impact decisions;
how to analyze your decision process; and
the benefits of mental time travel.

We mistakenly use the quality of a result to assess the quality of a decision.

Imagine you’ve accepted a new job, and everything is fantastic: great colleagues, satisfying work, and after a year you’re rewarded with a generous promotion.

Now, consider a similar situation. You accept a new job, but the outcome is the exact opposite: unfulfilling work, unfriendly colleagues, and, on top of all that, you get the boot. A year later, you’re out of work.

Which job hop was a good decision? The first one, right? After all, it brought enjoyable work, more money, and you didn’t get fired. Let’s pause right there – because you may have noticed that this assessment is based entirely on the decision’s outcome. It says little about the decision itself.

The key message here is: We mistakenly use the quality of a result to assess the quality of a decision.

We often forget the process that went into a decision. We usually remember the result. Focusing solely on results, however, can lead to a misguided assessment of the decision’s quality.

Using the result to evaluate the quality of a decision is called resulting. In psychology, it’s also known as outcome bias. It may feel rational, but this mental shortcut actually tricks us into putting more weight on the role a decision played in the final outcome while underestimating the role of luck.

Every decision has a range of possible outcomes. These outcomes can be good, bad, ugly, or anything in between. Whatever it is, though, our perception of how that outcome was achieved changes in retrospect. So, we may believe misfortune led to a bad outcome, or take credit for a good outcome, even if it was partly a matter of dumb luck.

Resulting leads to repeating the same errors or faulty decisions because we’re not assessing the decision-making process at all. We’re only looking at the outcome. For example, if you run a red light safely, does the positive outcome mean you made the right decision? Clearly not.

Resulting also affects the way we view the world. It can compromise our compassion for others and ourselves. We may decide that something bad has happened to someone because they made a bad decision. Or blame ourselves if something doesn’t go as planned for us, even if some factors were beyond our control.

Eliminating our reliance on resulting is the first step to making better quality decisions, regardless of positive or negative outcomes.

Hindsight bias often changes our perception of a decision, making us accept a singular outcome as inevitable.

I knew that was going to happen! Of course they didn’t win! It’s totally obvious – I can’t believe I didn’t see it before! Have you ever found yourself saying something like this? Or maybe a friend seems to have a particular knack for appearing correct after a decision plays out.

It’s easy to revise our knowledge of the recent past once we know an outcome. We become retroactively omniscient. Or we think someone else has a canny ability to predict the future with remarkable accuracy. But this is all misleading. When it comes to learning from our decisions, misremembering the facts after the outcome only confuses us on how we made the decision in the first place.

You can’t learn from your decisions if you don’t gather sufficient data about them.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. If you’re like most people, at some point your decisions have led to moments of wishful thinking, even regret. If only things had turned out differently. If only my interview hadn’t been so early in the morning. If only I’d arrived before they ran out of blueberry scones.

To be clear, it’s impossible to change the past. Once it’s done, it’s done. But we need to look at the past to understand how we’ve made decisions and to continue honing our decision-making skills. We also can’t judge a single outcome as the only unpreventable possibility. Instead, we need to examine multiple decisions and the multiple results they can lead to.

The six-step method helps us reduce bias and make more informed decisions.

You’ve just come back to your waterfront Miami apartment to find a job offer in your inbox. It’s your dream job at a company you never thought you’d get to work at. But there’s one catch: it’s in Boston, Massachusetts. Everything seemed great except that you hate the cold, and you’ve spent the better part of your adult life avoiding New England weather at all costs.

Will you remain in Miami, or will you ship out to Boston? It seems cruel to be burdened with such a major life decision, but if you break it down into six manageable steps, you can arrive at a choice that best suits your values and goals.

Precise terms of probability contextualize your level of certainty and invite others to help increase that certainty.

Let’s say your car breaks down in the middle of a cross-country road trip. It’s towed to a local mechanic, and after letting her take a look, you ask for the prognosis. When will it be ready? She replies, “Well, more likely than not, by the middle of next week.” That sounds promising, but how certain is it?

One person might take it to mean the mechanic is definitely going to repair it by Wednesday morning. Someone else could interpret it as overly optimistic and think it might take a few weeks.

An accurate perspective comes from a blend of outside view and inside view.

Think of a friend who’s always late. He’s always hitting traffic at the wrong time. No matter what, he’s plagued by red lights and infuriatingly slow drivers. From his perspective, it’s always bad luck. But from your perspective, there’s more in his control than he’s appreciating. Does this mean that you know everything, and he knows nothing? No! From outside his perspective, it’s easier to see the patterns he’s missing.

To ensure that you’re not that friend, you’ll have to improve your pattern-recognition skills. One way to do that is to familiarize yourself with two perspectives: the outside view and the inside view.

Identifying repetitive, low-impact decisions frees up time to spend on less frequent, high-impact decisions.

One hundred and fifty minutes. That’s how long the average person spends deciding what to eat each week.

Ninety to 115 minutes per week deciding what to wear.

Diligently identifying obstacles to a potential outcome can help you avoid them in the first place.

Close your eyes and visualize yourself in the future. It’s a lovely vision. You’re successful. You’re happy. You’ve achieved your most daunting goals.

Now open your eyes. Did it work? Are you there? Did anything change?

If you want an honest response when soliciting feedback, don’t disclose your own opinion first.

A friend asks whether you like Charlie Chaplin films, but before you answer, she blurts, “I can’t stand them. So boring! Anyone who likes them must be boring, too.”

If you don’t have a strong opinion of Chaplin’s work, you’d probably respond with some indifferent agreement. But what if you were a huge Chaplin buff? Your shelves are lined with Charlie Chaplin paraphernalia, including a huge Modern Times poster on the wall. Perhaps your passion for slapstick silent films exceeds your aversion to conflict. But if you’re like most people, you’d at least try to play down your obsession to be a little less at odds with your friend’s scathing review.

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Worum geht es in How to Decide?

How to Decide (2020) investigates the way we make decisions, as well as common types of bias and faulty techniques that afflict them. It teaches you how to identify different types of decisions, and then design practical processes to help slow down or speed up the deliberation process accordingly.

Wer How to Decide lesen sollte

Anyone interested in decision-making strategies
People who like psychology
Business managers who make big decisions regularly

Über den Autor

Annie Duke is a former professional poker player. A 2004 World Series of Poker champion, Duke has written or co-written numerous books on poker, such as Decide to Play Great Poker, which she co-wrote with John Vorhaus. She also wrote Thinking in Bets, an exploration of decision-making strategies under uncertainty.

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