2030 Book Summary - 2030 Book explained in key points

2030 summary

Name: 2030
Rating: 4.2 (669 reviews)
Author: Mauro F. Guillén

Mauro F. Guillén

How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything

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4.2 (669 ratings)

27 mins

8 key ideas

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What is 2030 about?

2030 (2020) isn’t a crystal ball – but it might be the next best thing. Drawing on current sociological trends, demographic trajectories, and technological advancements, it paints a convincing picture of the global changes we can expect to see and experience in the coming decade.

About the Author

Mauro F. Guillén is a trained sociologist and acknowledged expert in global market trends. Guillén currently holds the Zandman Professorship in International Management at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and his online courses have reached over 100,000 participants around the world.

Table of Contents

Key idea 1 of 8

The decreasing birth rate will forever change human demographics.

In 1968, professors Paul and Anne Ehrlich released the provocatively titled book Population Bomb. The Ehrlichs argued that if the human race kept procreating at its current rate, it was only a matter of time before humans would overrun the planet.

Fast-forward more than 50 years, and many are still alarmed by the prospect of overpopulation. But rather than a baby boom, our biggest worry come 2030 might be a baby drought.

The key message is: The decreasing birth rate will forever change human demographics.

Since the 1970s, women in the US have had, on average, fewer than two children each. In other words, fewer than necessary to replace the current generation.

What’s wrong with that? A dwindling population might be good news for the planet’s overtaxed resources. But our current economic system relies on the next generation to care for the elderly and foot the bill for pensions through their taxes. Now, all over the world, from Brazil to Japan, governments are questioning who, exactly, will support their aging populations in the coming decades.

Why is the birth rate declining? Well, these days women are more active in the workforce. So they’re likely to defer starting a family until they’re established in their chosen field. Fertility declines with age, so women who start their families later in life tend to have fewer children.

We’re also having less sex. A study by the Archives of Sexual Behavior found that in the 2010s Americans had sex, on average, nine times less per year than they did in the 1990s. Why? It’s partly because technology has brought a host of enjoyable distractions into our homes – sex is just one pastime among many we can indulge in on a rainy night.

Not every country’s birth rate is on the decline. The African continent has a current population of 1.3 billion. That’s projected to rise to 2 billion by 2038 and 3 billion by 2061, with the boom concentrated in the sub-Saharan region.

The African baby boom will have two key flow-on effects. First, sub-Saharan Africa relies on imported food. As its population grows, the markets for feeding and developing agriculture in the region will grow, too, potentially becoming a trillion-dollar sector, according to the World Bank.

Second, many Western nations will need to rethink their hardline stances on immigration. They may soon be dependent on immigrant workers from the Global South to fund and care for their swelling ranks of retirees.

Aging consumers will have more spending power than ever before.

The Netherlands, 1891: Frederick and Gerard Phillips, a father and son team, cofound the electronics company Phillips. Thanks to a series of innovative inventions – amongst them, tungsten filament light bulbs, the electric razor, the VCR, and the CD – Phillips stays relevant and profitable through most of the twentieth century. This changes in the 1990s, when Philips is suddenly undercut by cheaper, Asian-manufactured electronics. In the 2000s, the ailing company flirts with bankruptcy.

Phillips might have folded entirely if Frans van Houten hadn’t taken the helm in 2011. He shifted Philips’s focus to health-care technology, like scanners and imagers. Thanks in part to the world’s aging population, these products are now in high demand – and that demand will likely continue to grow.

By 2030, the middle classes will have shifted dramatically.

Ask any economist and she’ll tell you: the middle classes are the engine of the economy. Neither affluent nor impoverished, they are steady – if cautious – consumers. And it’s their steady spending that keeps the economic wheels spinning.

And yet, in Europe and America, the middle classes, once robust, are stagnating. Many traditional middle-class jobs have been automated or outsourced.

Women will hold the purse strings in 2030.

In 2008, the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers signaled the start of a global recession. But what if it had been Lehman Sisters instead of Lehman Brothers? Would the bank have gone under? Perhaps not. A study of male and female brokers at an investment bank showed that the female brokers were more cautious, while the men took more risks.

Why is that important? Well, come 2030, women will hold more than half the world’s wealth for the first time. And global spending habits will change as a result. Spending will likely increase in sectors such as education, health care, and insurance, where women have typically been bigger spenders than men. In investing, women will lead the trend for “safer” investments, like indexed stock funds.

To weather the coming climate crisis, city living needs to transform.

Paris, New York, Delhi, Shanghai, London: The world’s major metropolises are hotbeds of art, culture, and finance – as well as inequality, pollution, and, well, actual heat. It’s true. Cities are warming at faster rates than rural areas, thanks to their high concentrations of concrete and asphalt. These materials trap heat, which in turn increases global warming. They’re also hubs for consumption, construction, and traffic. In fact, the globe’s cities are responsible for 75 percent of energy use and 80 percent of carbon emissions.

Climate change will undoubtedly be felt more keenly in cities. Cities account for only one percent of the world’s land, yet 55 percent of the world’s population lives in them. Moreover, 75 percent of cities are on or near a coast, making them vulnerable to rising sea levels. Asian mega-metropolises like Jakarta and Bangkok are especially at risk. Elsewhere, Venice, New Orleans, and Miami face immediate threat. So what can cities do to mitigate the coming climate crisis?

Prepare for rapid technological change in the coming decade.

Remember the cartoon series The Jetsons? It was first released in 1962, but is set in the year 2062, where it followed the adventures of a futuristic family, the Jetsons. Father and husband George zipped off to work every day in a flying car, while his wife, Jane, delegated household chores to the robot housekeeper.

By the year 2030, we might not be commuting in flying cars – but we can expect lots of exciting technological developments in the next ten years.

Get used to sharing instead of owning.

If you’ve ever observed kindergartners playing with buckets and spades in the sandpit, you’ll know it’s true: sharing doesn’t always come naturally. But by 2030, we’d better have gotten used to it. The sharing economy is on the rise. Soon, we’re all going to own less and share more.

Imagine having a home on every continent, or a car in every city you visit. The only catch is, they’re not yours. Or not just yours. You’re one of many people who pays a fee to access them. Does that bother you? If the answer is no, you could well be a millennial or a Gen Zer. Statistics show that you value lifestyle over property, and are far more likely than your parents to see the value in paying a low price to use a product rather than paying a high price to own a product.

In the coming decade, we’ll tap cryptocurrency’s full potential.

Late in the thirteenth century, the intrepid Italian explorer Marco Polo ventured to China. He was the first European to set foot there. He saw lots of amazing things that hadn’t yet arrived in Europe, like gunpowder and porcelain. But the thing that really blew his mind? Paper money. The explorer observed it being exchanged with great solemnity, “as if it were pure gold or silver.”

These days, we’re comfortable using forms of money that are increasingly abstracted from the value they represent – from the paper currency that so impressed Marco Polo to stocks and bonds. And the next potential revolution in currency is already well underway. By 2030 cryptocurrencies may have moved from the fringe to the mainstream.

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Who should read 2030

Tech workers and marketing professionals keen to stay ahead of the curve
Eco-warriors looking for solutions to the climate crisis
Anyone curious to see what the future might hold

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2030 summary

Listen to the first key idea

What is 2030 about?

About the Author

The decreasing birth rate will forever change human demographics.

Aging consumers will have more spending power than ever before.

By 2030, the middle classes will have shifted dramatically.

Women will hold the purse strings in 2030.

To weather the coming climate crisis, city living needs to transform.

Prepare for rapid technological change in the coming decade.

Get used to sharing instead of owning.

In the coming decade, we’ll tap cryptocurrency’s full potential.

Key ideas in 2030

The decreasing birth rate will forever change human demographics.

Aging consumers will have more spending power than ever before.

By 2030, the middle classes will have shifted dramatically.

Women will hold the purse strings in 2030.

To weather the coming climate crisis, city living needs to transform.

Prepare for rapid technological change in the coming decade.

Get used to sharing instead of owning.

In the coming decade, we’ll tap cryptocurrency’s full potential.

Who should read 2030

Categories with 2030

Books like 2030

What our members say

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