Antifragile Buchzusammenfassung - das Wichtigste aus Antifragile

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Zusammenfassung von Antifragile

Name: Antifragile
Rating: 4.6 (555 reviews)
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Things That Gain from Disorder

4.6 (555 Bewertungen)

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Antifragile
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Unlike fragile items, which break when put under stress, antifragile items actually benefit from volatility and shock.

When you send an item made of glass by post, you would probably ensure that the package is clearly labelled ‘Please Handle with Care’ because the glass is fragile; it needs to be put in a tranquil environment because it shatters when harmed by stresses and shocks.

Fragility is a relatively easy concept to understand; we are all aware that fragile items need to be protected from volatile situations. Yet when we try to think of the opposite of fragility, we struggle. What do you call something that benefits from volatility?

You may be thinking that robust is the answer. However, although a robust item will be able to survive shocks better than a fragile one, it is not the opposite; it doesn’t benefit from harm. What we are looking for is something that you would deliberately mishandle, something that you’d package with the label ‘Please Handle Roughly.’

We struggle to define this concept partly because none of the world’s major languages has a word for it. We must therefore use the word antifragile to describe the antithesis of fragility – things that benefit from shock and therefore prefer volatility to tranquillity.

A good example of antifragility is the story of the Hydra from Greek mythology. The Hydra was a many-headed serpent which tormented the ancient world. Each time one of these heads was cut off in battle, two would grow back in its place. So every time the beast was harmed, it benefitted; the Hydra was therefore antifragile.

Unlike fragile items, which break when put under stress, antifragile items actually benefit from volatility and shock.

The antifragility of a system depends on the fragility of its constituent parts.

A good example of antifragility is the evolutionary process; it thrives in a volatile environment. With each shock, evolution forces life forms to transform, mutate and improve to become better suited to their environment.

Yet when you look closely at the evolutionary process, something very interesting becomes clear. While the process itself is undoubtedly antifragile, each individual organism itself is fragile. For evolution to occur, all that matters is that the successful genetic code is passed on. The individuals themselves are unimportant and die in the process. In fact, the system needs this to happen to free up living space for more successful individuals to thrive.

Shocks and stressors strengthen antifragile systems by forcing them to build up extra capacity.

We often experience antifragility without even knowing it. Exercising is a good example of this. When we exercise we put our bodies through unusual stress. In doing this, our bodies react to the shock and grow stronger. In this way our bodies are antifragile.

The example of exercising also highlights how the concept of antifragility works. When confronted by stressors, in this case weights or a treadmill, an antifragile system will respond by overcompensating: it will improve its capacity to deal with possible future shocks. This is a crucial element of antifragility; strength comes from overcompensating against adversity.

Tranquil environments result in fragile systems – antifragility stems from volatility.

Antifragility is typically found in natural, or biological, systems. Most man-made items cannot be antifragile as they cannot self-improve based on failures or unexpected stressors. At best, they can only be robust. A washing machine, for example, will eventually wear down after repeated use; it may be able to stand a fair amount of shocks, but it cannot benefit from them.

There are, however, a few artificial systems that are also antifragile. The economy is a good example. Although it is a man-made system, it is incredibly antifragile. Such systems are almost biological in nature, due to their complexity: they consist of a series of interdependent layers and sub-units.

To take advantage of antifragility you don’t need to understand the opportunities you see, just when to seize them.

When the author was working in highly volatile global currency markets, he was surprised to find that often the most successful traders were also the most uneducated. They didn’t understand complicated economic theory or the finances of the countries whose currencies they were trading. They just knew when to buy and when to sell.

In general, society places far too much value on theoretical, or academic, knowledge and not nearly enough on practical knowledge. We assume that the former inevitably leads to the latter, though, in fact, the two are completely separate. Knowing why planes fly does not make you a qualified pilot.

To become antifragile, manage your risks so you can benefit from unpredictable events.

You cannot go through life without encountering periods of volatility and uncertainty; unexpected events such as economic collapses or natural disasters can happen in the blink of an eye.

In order to make yourself antifragile, you have to accept this and try to “domesticate” the uncertainty, rather than avoid or eliminate it. The best way to achieve this is to follow a barbell strategy: much as a barbell has weights on both ends but nothing in the middle, you must prepare for extremes, both negative and positive, and ignore the middle path.

The larger the organisation or system is, the harder it will be hit by unexpected crises.

Imagine you have to attend an important conference in Iceland. Naturally, you book your flight well in advance to get it at the cheapest price. Unfortunately, a day before the conference, the airline informs you that your flight is cancelled. You can’t miss the conference, so you have no choice but to book a much pricier, last-minute flight.

This kind of nightmare is known as a squeeze: a situation where you have no choice but to do something, regardless of the cost. Squeezes are the opposite of options.

Many modern professions are antifragile, but at everybody else’s expense.

In the months preceding the 2008 financial crisis, a great many financial experts in the world’s business schools and newspapers confidently informed us that there was no need to worry about the economy. The “experts” were of course very wrong: the global economy did collapse and many people lost their investments, homes and pensions.

Now, you’d think that because of their failure to predict one of the biggest financial collapses of all time, these experts would find themselves in hot water. In fact, a vast majority of them kept their influential positions without even having to apologize for their mistakes. This is because the field they work in is relatively narrow, and all the experts were familiar with each other and interdependent, which meant they weren’t too eager to criticize each other. Soon their mistakes were largely forgotten.

Our desire to eliminate volatility from life will eventually make our society more fragile.

Many politicians and economists have viewed the economic cycle of boom and bust as inefficient and unpredictable. In an attempt to make the process better, they developed complex theories about when and how they should intervene in the cycle to smooth it out.

This is a crucial problem with modern thinking: it tries to make society as smooth and tranquil as possible. As human knowledge grows, we become more arrogant about what we can and should control. We view volatility as something we can’t predict, so we try to control it.

Modern teaching suffers from a “turkey problem” – we misread the past to predict the future.

Imagine you were a turkey on a brisk October day, happily clucking away. If you were to predict the future from looking at the recent past, you would have little reason to worry. Every day your owner has fed you well and made sure you are healthy; you may, therefore, confidently predict that your owner loves turkeys and that the future for you looks rosy. On Thanksgiving Day you would be in for a shock.

This reflects one of the main problems of modern times: making predictions about the future based on a narrow view of the past. Universities, business schools and newspapers are full of people telling us what will happen in the future. Companies spend millions hiring strategists and risk managers, hoping to take advantage of the predictions.

We undervalue the role of antifragility in fuelling progress and advances in society.

We are taught in school that the Industrial Revolution was a product of scientific progress: developments in theoretical knowledge drove technological advances which, in turn, transformed manufacturing, business and society.

Yet, this narrative is wrong. The Industrial Revolution was, in fact, largely instigated not by academics and professionals theorizing, but by hobbyists and amateurs tinkering. The submarine, for example, wasn’t invented by a university or a naval institution, but by a religious minister, Rev. George Garrett, who worked on it in his spare time. Inventions like these were the result of hundreds of amateurs working independently, constantly trying out new technologies and ideas, often failing but occasionally hitting success, from which society as a whole benefitted. They therefore formed an antifragile system.

Final Summary

Antifragility is a quality which has propelled human progress from the earliest times. It allows systems to grow and improve in an unpredictable and volatile world. However, modern society is in the process of trying to dismantle the volatile environment that is vital for antifragility. In doing so, we are making ourselves more fragile.

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Worum geht es in Antifragile?

Some things seem to improve if they are placed in environments of volatility and unpredictability. Antifragile (2014) analyzes why this is the case. It suggests that this quality has been vital for the progress of human civilization since ancient times.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb takes a critical look at modern society and its aim to smooth out life by interfering in systems like the economy. Far from making society a better place, this interfering nature is destroying the volatile environment essential for antifragility to take place.

Wer Antifragile lesen sollte

Anyone who wants to know why some systems improve over time
Anyone who wants to know how to take advantage of uncertainty
Anyone interested in why crises happen

Über den Autor

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an academic and author of bestselling works such as The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness. He has devoted his life to studying the cause and effects of uncertainty and probability. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute.

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