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Zusammenfassung von Thinking in Bets

Name: Thinking in Bets
Rating: 4.4 (289 reviews)
Author: Annie Duke

Annie Duke

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

4.4 (289 Bewertungen)

21 Min.

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What’s in it for me? Learn how to work around your neurological wiring.

There are very few sure things in life, so when we make decisions, we play the odds. Whether it’s what to study, which job to apply for or which house to buy, the outcomes of our decisions rely on many other factors. It’s simply not possible to know every single relevant variable when we make up our minds.

Like poker, life-changing decisions are largely based on luck. But calling it all “luck” is a bit disingenuous – it’s more like a game of probabilities. What’s more, the decisions we make are linked to the ways our brains are neurologically wired.

So what can you control? Well, probably more than you think.

With lessons grounded in poker and cognitive psychology, these blinks explain how it all starts with thinking in bets.

You’ll find out

why hard-luck stories are a waste of time;
why car accidents are always someone else’s fault; and
how time travel might be our best tool for making decisions.

Human minds tend to confuse decisions with their outcomes, which makes it hard to see mistakes clearly.

Super Bowl XLIX ended in controversy. With 26 seconds left in the game, everyone expected Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll to tell his quarterback, Russell Wilson, to hand the ball off. Instead, he told Wilson to pass. The ball was intercepted, the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl, and, by the next day, public opinion about Carroll had turned nasty. The headline in the Seattle Times read: “Seahawks Lost Because of the Worst Call in Super Bowl History”!

But it wasn’t really Carroll’s decision that was being judged. Given the circumstances, it was actually a fairly reasonable call. It was the fact that it didn’t work.

Poker players call this tendency to confuse the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome resulting, and it’s a dangerous tendency. A bad decision can lead to a good outcome, after all, and good decisions can lead to bad outcomes. No one who’s driven home drunk has woken up the next day and seen it as a good decision just because they didn’t get into an accident.

In fact, decisions are rarely 100 percent right or wrong. Life isn’t like that. Life is like poker, a game of incomplete information – since you never know what cards the other players are holding – and luck. Our decision-making is like poker players’ bets. We bet on future outcomes based on what we believe is most likely to occur.

So why not look at it this way? If our decisions are bets, we can start to let go of the idea that we’re 100 percent “right” or “wrong," and start to say, “I’m not sure.” This opens us up to thinking in terms of probability, which is far more useful.

Volunteering at a charity poker tournament, the author once explained to the crowd that player A’s cards would win 76 percent of the time, giving the other player a 24 percent chance to win. When player B won, a spectator yelled out that she’d been wrong.

But, she explained, she’d said that player B’s hand would win 24 percent of the time. She wasn’t wrong. It was just that the actual outcome fell within that 24 percent margin.

If we want to seek out truth, we have to work around our hardwired tendency to believe what we hear.

We all want to make good decisions. But saying, “I believe X to be the best option” first requires good-quality beliefs. Good-quality beliefs are ideas about X that are informed and well thought-out. But we can’t expect to form good-quality beliefs with lazy thinking. Instead, we have to be willing to do some work in the form of truth-seeking. That means we have to strive for truth and objectivity, even when something doesn’t align with the beliefs we hold.

Unfortunately, truth-seeking runs contrary to the ways we’re naturally wired. For our evolutionary ancestors, questioning new beliefs could be dangerous, so it was low priority. If you hear a lion rustling in the grass, for example, you’re less likely to stop and analyze the situation objectively, and more likely to just run!

We can learn a lot from outcomes, but it’s difficult to know which have something to teach us.

The best way to learn is often by reviewing our mistakes. Likewise, if we want to improve our future outcomes, we’ll have to do some outcome fielding. Outcome fielding is looking at outcomes to see what we can learn from them.

Some outcomes we can attribute to luck and forget about – they were out of our control anyway. It’s the outcomes that seem to have resulted primarily from our decisions that we should learn from. After analyzing those decisions, we can refine and update any beliefs that led to our initial bet.

To become more objective about outcomes, we need to change our habits.

Phil Ivey is one of the best poker players in the world. He’s admired by his peers and has been incredibly successful in every type of poker. One big reason for this? Phil Ivey has good habits.

Habits work in neurological loops that have three parts: cue, routine and reward. As Pulitzer-prize-winning reporter Charles Duhigg points out in his book The Power of Habit, the key to changing a habit is to work with this structure, leaving the cue and reward alone but changing the routine.

We can improve our decision-making by being part of a group, but it needs to be the right kind of group.

We’ve all got blind spots, which makes truth-seeking hard. But it’s a little easier when we enlist the help of a group. After all, others can often pick out our errors more easily than we can.

But to be effective, a group dedicated to examining decisions isn’t like any other. It has to have a clear focus, a commitment to objectivity and open-mindedness, and a clear charter that all members understand.

To work together productively, a group needs CUDOS.

Shared commitment and clear guidelines help define a good-quality decision-examining group. But once you’ve got that group, how do you work within it?

You can start by giving each other CUDOS.

To make better decisions, we need to spend some time in the future.

Comedian Jerry Seinfeld describes himself as a “Night Guy.” He likes to stay up late at night and doesn’t worry about getting by on too little sleep. That’s Morning Jerry’s problem, not Night Jerry. No wonder Morning Jerry hates Night Jerry so much – Night Jerry always screws him over.

It’s a funny description, but temporal discounting – making decisions that favor our immediate desires at the expense of our future self – is something we all do.

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Worum geht es in Thinking in Bets?

In any situation, the best decision isn’t guaranteed to work out, and even terrible decisions can sometimes turn out to be the right ones. So when things go wrong, who do we blame and why? And what about when things go right? In Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018), poker champion, author and business consultant Annie Duke shows how our addiction to outcomes leads to irrational thinking and the confusion of luck with skill.

Bestes Zitat aus Thinking in Bets

Statements of science are not of what is true and what is not true, but . . . what is known to different degrees of certainty . . . – Richard Feynman

—Annie Duke

Wer Thinking in Bets lesen sollte

Gamblers
Decision-phobes
Anyone who wants to stop making the same mistakes over and over

Über den Autor

For over two decades, writer, coach and speaker Annie Duke was one of the world’s top poker players. In 2004, she earned a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet ahead of 234 other players, and in 2010 she won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship.

Duke holds a master’s degree in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also completed her doctoral coursework before beginning her career in poker. She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of Poker, was published in 2005.

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