The Fourth Turning Book Summary - The Fourth Turning Book explained in key points

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The Fourth Turning summary

Name: The Fourth Turning
Rating: 4.5 (355 reviews)
Author: William Strauss and Neil Howe

William Strauss Neil Howe

An American Prophecy

4.5 (355 ratings)

23 mins

Brief summary

The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe explores the cyclical nature of history and predicts a potential crisis in the near future.

Topics

US History Crises & Scandals

Table of Contents

The Fourth Turning
Summary of 4 key ideas

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Key idea 1 of 4

What’s in it for me? Look at American history from a different perspective.

First comes the High. In the wake of a Crisis, morale is upbeat, institutions are strong, and communities flourish as individualism weakens.

Then comes the Awakening. People begin to revolt against the old civic order and supplant it with new values.

Next, an Unraveling. Much the opposite of a High, individualism begins to rise while institutions weaken. The new values determined in the Awakening begin to replace the old regime.

Finally, the Crisis. Society is in a state of upheaval. The old social order disintegrates, hardship besets the population, and political and economic trust is at an extreme low. Yet, in its wake, new seeds of social rebirth begin to grow, bringing about another eventual High. And so the story repeats.

These are what Neil Howe and William Strauss call the four Turnings of history: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. It’s a model with which we can understand the flux and flow of history –⁠ the way it follows particular patterns that repeat regularly over time. In this Blink to The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe and William Strauss, we’ll take a deep dive into what each of these four Turnings signifies, which generations occupy the roles within them, and how you may prepare for the Turnings to come.

In this Blink, you’ll learn

why time is more like a spiral than a line;
how history shapes the character of each generation; and
how to prepare for a Crisis.

History unfolds in a cyclical pattern.

Humankind is obsessed with time –⁠ measuring it, dividing it, observing it, and most recently, controlling it.

Throughout the course of our species’s history, humans have developed three distinct ways of thinking about time. The first is chaotic time, which was the dominant theory during our primitive days. In this view, historical events occur randomly. There’s no point in trying to determine the causes of events or to try and improve society because history doesn’t follow a path and there’s nothing people can do to influence it.

The second theory of time, which became prevalent during the classical period, was cyclical time. The idea was that events occurred in cycles, much like the rotation of the earth, the orbit of the moon, or the procession of the zodiac. Humans can participate in and shape history by performing the right actions at the right times, thus winning favor from the gods. As such, this theory gives people more agency than in chaotic time.

Finally, the third theory of time –⁠ linear time –⁠ became the dominant force alongside the Western monotheistic religions –⁠ Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. In this version of time, history occurs as a straight line –⁠ a story with an absolute beginning and end with events following each other logically. This theory enabled humanity to liberate itself completely from the shackles of fate. People didn’t need to believe anymore that they were powerless in the face of external events because they could influence the story directly.

But linear time also cuts people off from natural cycles and their relationship to something greater than themselves. For example, by suppressing the flow of a river by damming it, we might think we’re stopping a flood cycle. But we may instead be simply ensuring that the cycle is less frequent but more devastating.

No Western nation denies natural rhythms and proclaims its freedom from them more than America. Perhaps for that reason, those rhythms play out even more dramatically there than elsewhere.

Like other Western societies, America follows the saecular cycle, a temporal sequence of a hundred years –⁠ around the length of a human life span. This length of time is called a saeculum, and it contains patterns that repeat. Within each saeculum is a Turning – a span of about 20 years. This corresponds to about the length of one phase of human life, from childhood to elderhood. In miniature, a saeculum is like a year, while a turning is like a season.

All together, the four turnings of a saeculum comprise its four seasons of growth, maturation, entropy, and decay. In the next chapter, we’ll go into more depth as to what characterizes each of these periods.

Every saeculum consists of a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and a Crisis.

Winter follows autumn and summer follows spring. Every year, the seasons repeat in the same pattern. You’ll never find winter following summer. In the same way, the Turnings within each saeculum follow a particular pattern every single time they occur.

The pattern begins with a High. You can think of this like the season of spring. A High always follows a Crisis, so the fact that the Crisis has ended means that the nation’s mood is now upbeat and triumphant. Government is powerful and effective, the gap between rich and poor narrows, productivity grows, the economy prospers, and society, in general, becomes more community-minded. On the other hand, Highs are characterized by a conformist culture, with the nation succeeding in public cooperation but failing in personal fulfillment. Additionally, people tend to overlook or ignore injustice, preferring not to rock the boat.

Turnings shape people into four distinct archetypes.

Imagine an average person raised in a warm climate versus an average person raised in a cold climate. Ignore things like skin tone or eye color –⁠ focus on personality. For the warm climate person, you’re probably imagining someone extraverted and gregarious. For the cold climate person, you might be thinking about someone more introverted or conscientious.

The bottom line is: we know that the “season” in which we grow up has an impact on our personality. In the same way, people are shaped by the historical “seasons” –⁠ the Turnings –⁠ that they live through as children and throughout the rest of their lives. The result is that we end up with generations, well-defined groups of people, every 20 years or so. Since the seasons arrive in a fixed pattern, so too do generations.

Prepare for Turnings by acting in accordance with the season.

The saecular winter –⁠ the Crisis –⁠ is a dire period of time. It is unavoidable and inevitable. Does that mean there’s nothing any of us can do about it?

Not necessarily. Just like in farming, there’s always a time to reap and a time to sow. The same is true when it comes to weathering the Turnings of the saecula. The key is to recognize when which behaviors are appropriate. It’s useless at best and dangerous at worst to try and avoid unwanted seasons. Instead, prepare for and accept them. Most importantly, participate in seasonal activities while avoiding unseasonal ones.

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What is The Fourth Turning about?

The Fourth Turning (1997) presents a fascinating picture of history, past, present, and future. Though the people of modern Western societies tend to view history as a linear process, the reality might instead be cyclical, repeated regularly and predictably. By studying the ways in which history does indeed repeat itself, we can better prepare ourselves for what is likely to come in the future.

The Fourth Turning Review

The Fourth Turning (1997) is a thought-provoking book that delves into the patterns of history. Here's why it's worth reading:

It presents a unique cyclical view of history, identifying recurring patterns that span generations.
The book provides a fascinating analysis of past events and their implications for the future.
It offers valuable insights into how societies evolve and the potential challenges they face.

Gain a new perspective on history by reading The Fourth Turning.

Who should read The Fourth Turning?

History buffs
Devotees of American politics
Future predictors

About the Author

William Strauss was a social theorist, consultant, author, playwright, and director. He coauthored Generations, 13th Gen, Millennials Rising, and The Fourth Turning with Neil Howe. Their books have influenced such diverse figures as Al Gore and Steve Bannon. He founded the Cappies, a theater awards program for high school students, and he wrote a number of plays and musicals, including MaKiddo and Gray Champions.

Neil Howe is a social theorist, consultant, and author. He has written or cowritten a number of books on generational trends, application-oriented books, and academic studies on aging. He’s the cofounder, with William Strauss, of three consulting companies: Hedgeye, Saeculum Research, and LifeCourse Associates, all of which work to apply their generational theory.

Categories with The Fourth Turning

History

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