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Zusammenfassung von The Rules of Contagion

Name: The Rules of Contagion
Rating: 4.2 (89 reviews)
Author: Adam Kucharski

Adam Kucharski

Why Things Spread – and Why They Stop

4.2 (89 Bewertungen)

24 Min.

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The Rules of Contagion by Adam Kucharski is a captivating book delving into how and why spread of diseases, ideas, computer viruses, and social behaviors are shaped by the fundamental principles of contagion.

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What’s in it for me? Discover how the rules of contagion apply to more than just infectious diseases.

These days, everyone wants to know more about how contagions work. Fortunately, author Adam Kucharski has made a career of studying some of today’s most dangerous contagions, including Zika and Ebola. While this book was written and published before the coronavirus pandemic, it is nonetheless a fascinating look into how viruses spread, and why they die off.

But contagion isn’t just limited to viruses. Many aspects of society also follow the same rules. You’re probably familiar with computer viruses or things going “viral” on the internet, but it turns out that the rules of contagion can also be seen in patterns of gun violence and the spread of new ideas.

These blinks will explain how contagious outbreaks happen, and why they eventually die off.

In these blinks, you’ll find out

how malaria research found its way into the study of sociology;
how bad correlations led to a financial collapse; and
how the rules of contagion can be used to reduce gun violence.

Mathematics and models forever changed the way we study contagious events.

Throughout human history, we’ve had to contend with outbreaks of contagious or infectious diseases. The good news is, many of these diseases – such as malaria, smallpox, and measles – have been greatly reduced. Thanks to advances in vaccines, hygiene, and our understanding of how disease moves, we’re much better at coping with the spread of disease than we were in the past.

One of the tools we’ve benefitted from is the use of scientific models. These have allowed us to analyze the spread of contagions and, in some cases, accurately predict our risk of danger.

The key message here is: Mathematics and models forever changed the way we study contagious events.

One of the pioneers in using math to study outbreaks was the nineteenth-century British surgeon Ronald Ross. In 1883, Ross was stationed in Bangalore, India. It was there that he first encountered a severe mosquito problem. But what was causing it? Ross was among the first to recognize that mosquito numbers were directly related to the presence of stagnant water.

Ten years later, on sabbatical in London, Ross gained some critical insight from fellow doctor Patrick Manson. After studying parasites in China, Manson was convinced that when mosquitoes fed on blood infested with parasites, they could also become carriers of those parasites. This was vital information for Ross. He saw it as a likely explanation for the spread of malaria, one of humanity's oldest infectious diseases. Could parasite-carrying mosquitoes be the culprit?

Ross proved his theory by getting mosquitoes to bite a bird infected with malaria. He showed how these mosquitoes could then transmit the disease to healthy birds. Ross then took his ideas a step further. He proposed ways of controlling malaria. For this, he made calculations and created models, publishing them in a 1910 book titled The Prevention of Malaria. For the first time, Ross explained how infection rates could be reduced and controlled by a reduction in the number of mosquitoes in an area.

For example, Ross’s data showed that it took around 48,000 mosquitoes to generate an average of one new human infection. So removing or treating stagnant water would have a direct influence on the number of new infections. He then laid out the importance of two statistics, the rate of infection and the rate of recovery, and showed that once the rate of recovery surpassed the rate of infection, the number of cases would eventually reach zero.

This marked a whole new way of looking at infectious disease.

Thanks to scientific models, we can recognize the rules of contagion in other aspects of life.

Researchers have relied on models to help fight a wide range of contagions, including Ebola, Zika, and HIV. Expanding upon Ronald Ross’s work, researchers developed what’s known as the SIR model, which stands for Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered.

In most cases, when someone recovers from an illness, they’re no longer susceptible. So as the number of recovered goes up, the number of susceptible goes down.

The rules of contagion can apply to finances.

What qualifies as a crisis in your mind? Certainly, a severe threat to our health can qualify, but so can a threat to our financial institutions.

The key message here is: The rules of contagion can apply to finances.

Statistics around violence and crime appear similar to those of infectious diseases.

Perhaps you’ve heard the phrase, “violence begets violence.” If you have, then maybe you wouldn’t be too surprised to learn that epidemiologists have found that acts of violence can spread like viruses.

The key message here is: Statistics around violence and crime appear similar to those of infectious diseases.

Ideas and internet memes can also go viral.

It isn’t easy for epidemiologists to make accurate predictions. To make a good model, you need good data, and this is often hard to come by. For a pandemic flu you would need hospitals and health centers from around the world to record and provide accurate data – not to mention people to collect and organize all that data!

That’s no small feat. And if it does happen, there’s usually a delay. Researchers are often playing catch-up – processing data that can be days, or even weeks, old.

Online content can mimic contagions, but the role of influencers is limited.

You may think Twitter is filled with viral content, but in fact, 95 percent of the content on Twitter is single tweets that no one has shared. It’s exceedingly rare for online content to catch on and spread around the world.

People like Jonah Peretti, as well as research teams from Microsoft and Facebook, have been studying the rare occasions when online content does go viral. They’ve been trying to answer the questions of why and how a particular piece of content can make you want to share it with everyone.

Technology can help us track contagions, with limitations.

As we’ve seen, technology can tell us a lot about the rules of contagion. But there are downsides.

Sure, social media has made it easy to communicate, but it also facilitates the rapid spread of misinformation and can be a constant source of anxiety.

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Worum geht es in The Rules of Contagion?

The Rules of Contagion (2020) takes a scientific and mathematical look at how viruses spread, and how ideas, behavior and popular online content all follow similar patterns. By following the rules of contagion, we can gain insight into the spread of ideas, what causes financial disasters, and how harmful acts like gun violence can also infect a community.

Bestes Zitat aus The Rules of Contagion

In 1902, Ross received the second ever Nobel Prize for medicine for his work on malaria.

—Adam Kucharski

Wer The Rules of Contagion lesen sollte

People who want to better understand the coronavirus
Mathematically minded individuals
Anyone interested in how ideas spread

Über den Autor

Adam Kucharski is a trained mathematician and associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. He is also a TED fellow and winner of the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize. He is the author of The Perfect Bet (2012), as well as a contributor to Scientific American, Financial Times, and the Observer.

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