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by Robin Sharma
Why Nations Succeed and Fail
Principles For Dealing With the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio examines historical cycles of global power shifts, offering practical strategies to understand and navigate the evolving economic and geopolitical landscape for future stability and success.
What do the Dutch, British, and American empires have in common? The first two rose and fell over 250-year periods – and America is fast approaching the same mark. So, here’s the big question: is American power about to decline as well? Could it be that the process is already in motion? And is there some grand theory that is predicting the end of American dominance?
Well, it turns out, yes – there sure is. The author calls it the Big Cycle, and it’s not just based on random coincidences. His theory posits that all empires throughout the last 500 years of history have followed similar patterns: they rose, peaked, and then declined. This Big Cycle alternates between times of peace and prosperity, where innovation and productivity flourish, and times of depression, revolution, and war, which are marked by conflicts over wealth and power.
During times of peace, living standards tend to rise significantly – while the following darker periods usually signal widespread destruction of wealth, life, and institutions. This is something we all want to avoid, but avoidance doesn’t prevent the age of US imperial power from coming to an end. At the end of any empire, few see its downfall coming. That’s the hubris built into empire – it often blinds those inside it to the signs of its decline.
So, what are the internal mechanics of the Big Cycle theory? It turns out it’s all about understanding shifts in global power and influence over time. This means that the theory doesn’t only herald the decline of one empire, it can also offer a glimpse into what lies in store for humanity going down the line. That’s the real power of this Blink – by equipping yourself with the knowledge of how this cycle works, you’ll be ready to adapt to shifting global power dynamics, particularly as an investor.
So, what are the indicators you should be looking out for to measure a nation’s power? The author identifies eight indicators, and we’ll be touching on each of them in the following sections. These are educational quality, innovation and technological advancement, global market performance, economic productivity, proportion of global trade, military capacity, financial sector influence, and a currency’s dominance as a global standard. It’s with monitoring these eight factors that we begin to see a nation’s current standing in relation to its history – and to see whether it’s ascending or descending.
Every decline has to start somewhere, that’s the nature of the Big Cycle. So the first question we’ll look to answer is how are empires usually born? We’ll examine this in the next section.
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order (2021) examines the patterns underpinning the rise and fall of past empires – and demonstrates that they can be equally applied to empires today. It explores how our current global dynamics mirror those of past centuries, with the US and China at the forefront, and argues that understanding these dynamics will prepare us for what’s ahead.
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Try Blinkist to get the key ideas from 7,500+ bestselling nonfiction titles and podcasts. Listen or read in just 15 minutes.
Start your free trialBlink 3 of 8 - The 5 AM Club
by Robin Sharma