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Name: One Billion Americans
Rating: 4.2 (36 reviews)
Author: Matthew Yglesias

Matthew Yglesias

The Case for Thinking Bigger

4.2 (36 ratings)

24 mins

Table of Contents

One Billion Americans
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What’s in it for me? Discover how a larger population could save America from economic decline.

America’s glory days are a thing of the past. Many of its cities, once vibrant and thriving, have fallen into ruin. Countless Americans can’t afford homes, medical services, or childcare. And now, America’s century-long title as the world’s greatest economic power is in jeopardy because of China’s growing wealth.

China’s rapid growth is partly the result of an important asset – population. With a population three times larger than that of the United States, China’s wealth per person needs to increase only marginally to knock America off the top perch. So if America wants to stay ahead, it needs to do something radical. It needs to match China’s population. And that means increasing America’s head count to one billion.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

how student loans affect birth rate;
what influenced publishers to set up shop on Wall Street; and
why low unemployment has increased homelessness.

To retain its economic power, America needs more people.

For over a century, the United States has been the world’s economic kingpin. By the time World War I was declared, its per-person income had overtaken the British Empire’s. And by 1938, America’s gross domestic product, or GDP, was greater than that of Germany, Japan, and Italy combined. This economic strength meant the US had superior wartime resources, and its soldiers were better equipped, both to fight and to stay healthy. And this helped America to win wars and conquer its enemies.

But the United States’ economic stronghold is being threatened by rising wealth in China. Americans are currently four times wealthier than Chinese people. But the gap between each country’s GDP is shrinking. China has over one billion people; the US has just 330 million. And if the Chinese population became just half as wealthy as Americans, China would become the world’s top economy. This is set to happen within the next 20 years.

The key message here is: To retain its economic power, America needs more people.

Many people assume that a large population leads to poverty. And this was true before the Industrial Revolution. But, today, a higher population helps our modern economy thrive. More people need more services, which means more business transactions. So, increasing America’s population would stimulate the economy, generating more wealth for the country. Tripling it to one billion people would help America retain its economic power.

A country the size of the US could comfortably accommodate a billion people. There are currently 93 people per square mile. Even if this figure were tripled, the number of people per square mile would still be considerably lower than in developed countries like Singapore, South Korea and even Belgium.

At one billion people, the US would be about as densely populated as France. If you visit the land of baguettes and fromage, you probably won’t feel overwhelmed by locals unless you’re on the Metro during rush hour. And even then, the density is nothing like what you’d find in the United Kingdom or Italy.

Of course, increasing a country’s population dramatically has ramifications, from housing shortages to environmental impact. But with the right policies in place, the government could overcome these challenges. In the blinks ahead, we’ll explore what would need to change for a billion-person US to work, and how America would benefit from tripling its population.

A higher population leads to better consumer options.

Imagine you’re in a small American town and it’s time for dinner. The menu in the town’s only restaurant spans a vast array of cuisines. When your meal arrives, it’s mediocre. Your reasonable assumption is that the locals don’t appreciate a good meal.

But you’d be wrong. In a town with a limited population, businesses like restaurants have to be as broadly appealing as possible, rather than specializing in one area in which they could really shine. But if that same town were to triple in size, it might become big enough to support three restaurants. And having more potential customers means there’s room for specialization. Those competing eateries would need to distinguish themselves from each other by each offering something unique, and raising their quality.

To increase the population, Americans need more financial support.

The US birth rate is at an all-time low. Women now have an average of just 1.72 children. Of course, it’s completely legitimate to have only one or two children, and just as legitimate to have no children at all. With more work opportunities than in previous generations, many women decide to pursue a career rather than create a large family.

But a disturbing fact emerges if you look at data about how many children parents want. The most recent General Social Survey shows that women would, on average, like 2.6 children. And men want at least two as well. But parents are shying away from having their ideal number of babies. They simply don’t have enough money to care for a second or third child.

America is wealthy enough to provide universal social welfare.

In the US, a shocking 21 percent of children live in poverty. This is more than double the rate in Sweden. And since the United States is the world’s top economy, wealth isn’t the reason for this travesty. It’s government policy.

In Europe, parents receive money from the government to help raise children. This doesn’t happen in the US. The child tax credit does provide parents with around $2,000 per child each year, but this isn’t enough. And worse, very poor families often don’t receive it because they aren’t working enough. But denying poor families cash benefits doesn’t motivate them to get jobs. All it does is lead to unnecessary suffering in the world’s richest country.

Immigration injects able workers into the economy.

In 1783, George Washington told newly arrived Irishmen that they were welcome in America regardless of their wealth, religion, or even respectability. But this was no act of charity. Washington had a vision. He wanted the United States to become a great nation. To achieve that, he needed people. And Washington understood that the most efficient way to get them was from overseas.

While increasing family size is one way to boost population, it means that the workforce won’t grow significantly for at least 20 years. But when immigrants arrive in a country, they’re capable of working straight away. In fact, without the many people who’ve moved to the United States over the years, US wealth would have already fallen behind Chinese wealth.

Increasing America’s population would revitalize diminishing cities.

Across the United States, cities and rural areas alike are turning into ghost towns. Around 24 percent of them have lost residents to big cities with better services and job opportunities. When people move in large numbers, neighborhoods deteriorate. An empty city can’t support museums, churches, or hospitals.

As a result, the people left behind suffer. A lack of demand means land values drop. This discourages landlords from maintaining buildings, and structures fall into disrepair. With a reduced customer base, amenities become scarce, making the area even more undesirable. This fate has befallen many significant cities, like Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis. These cities have plenty of residential capacity. But they need more people to create thriving communities.

Housing scarcity is the result of politics, not a lack of space.

Before COVID-19 hit the US, many cities like Seattle were experiencing an economic boom. Unemployment was falling – but something disturbing was happening at the same time: homelessness was rising dramatically. And this wasn’t happening just in Seattle. Long before the wave of unemployment caused by the global pandemic, hundreds of thousands of people were unhoused every night.

In the US, housing security deteriorates when the broader economy grows. This is because the cost of housing in wealthy cities increases to the point where some people can’t afford a home. Now, the United States has the technology and resources to solve this issue – but the easiest means of providing affordable housing is, for the most part, prohibited by law.

Well-designed transport systems could accommodate a larger population.

There’s nothing positive about traffic jams. They eat up time, frustrate commuters, and cause pollution. Even though automotive technology has advanced significantly since the 1960s, travel time has actually lengthened. In 1982, the average motorist spent 20 hours a year sitting in traffic. By 2017, this figure had nearly tripled, to 54 hours.

Traffic congestion is often used as an argument against increasing population. If people already struggle to get to work, how will the transport system support an even higher volume of commuters? But shouldn’t the nation that sent an astronaut to the moon be able to tackle this problem? There are already some great systems running in other countries that the US could easily adopt.

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What is One Billion Americans about?

One Billion Americans (2020) poses a provocative solution to America’s diminishing prosperity. Author Matthew Yglesias believes that by increasing its population to one billion, the nation could retain its position as the world’s top economic power. Yglesias puts forward a strategy to achieve this, while exploring the surprising benefits more people would bring.

Best quote from One Billion Americans

The rise of central cities where dogs outnumber children reflects policy failures . . .

—Matthew Yglesias

Who should read One Billion Americans?

Voters concerned about America’s future
The economically curious
Americans seeking solutions to social challenges

About the Author

Matthew Yglesias is an American journalist who specializes in economics and politics. He is cofounder, editor, and senior correspondent at news website Vox, and writes for the Atlantic, the American Prospect, and Slate. Author of The Rent is Too Damn High and Heads in the Sand, Yglesias also cohosts The Weeds podcast.

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