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Zusammenfassung von The Myth of the Rational Voter

Name: The Myth of the Rational Voter
Rating: 3.5 (35 reviews)
Author: Bryan Caplan

Bryan Caplan

Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies

3.5 (35 Bewertungen)

17 Min.

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Führung Demokratie

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The Myth of the Rational Voter
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What’s in it for me? Discover the biases that subvert our democracy.

In the Western world at least, there is little disagreement that democracy is the best possible form of political organization and social coexistence. Indeed, the transition from aristocratic, dictatorial or otherwise authoritarian forms of government to democracy has brought freedom, justice and equality along with it.

But today, democracy is in crisis: Western economies are at a standstill, unemployment is skyrocketing and it is becoming ever more apparent that democratic governments are having major difficulties coping with the challenges they face.

How has this happened? Well, the answer lies at the heart of democracy itself.

In these blinks, you will discover how widespread biases – especially those concerning the economy – translate into bad policies and prevent our democracies from functioning correctly. You will find out about the hidden principles of democratic political systems and why we should trust in the free market a little more.

You’ll also learn

how democracy is grounded in a miracle;
why there are only winners in free trade; and
why selflessness is a threat to democracy.

The averaging of extremes is fundamental to democracy and is what makes it such a functional system.

Many people consider democracy and democratic governance to be two of humanity’s greatest achievements.

After all, democracy is based on a miracle: the miracle of aggregation. Essentially, this refers to the phenomenon that an average answer given by a group tends to be correct.

So, if you ask some people to estimate how many beans are in a glass, some will guess too high and some too low. But when you average out their answers, the deviation in either direction will balance out, making the average very close to the correct number.

When this idea is applied to politics, it’s plain to see that the average voter is not very well informed and that his assessments of political issues tend to be wrong. But, interestingly enough, the divergent opinions of a large group of voters will average out to close to what is true. So, in a democracy, uninformed or extreme positions tend to nullify one another, leading to a more informed and moderate result.

And it’s precisely this middle way between the extremes that makes democracy such a sensible system. In a perfect democracy, popular ideas prevail while extreme viewpoints cancel each other out because of the miracle of aggregation.

This is what makes democratic governments better than dictatorships, in which only certain elites have a say and often hold opinions that are contrary to those of the majority. For example, when the East German government built the Berlin Wall in 1961, the decision stood in stark contrast to the general political sentiment of the East German people. If the country had been a democratic one, the miracle of aggregation would have never allowed such a wall to be built.

So, the miracle of aggregation is what makes democracy function. But sometimes democracies don’t work – and you’re about to learn why.

Widespread biases prevent the miracle of aggregation, and therefore democracies, from working.

You are probably well aware that many democratic governments implement policies that contradict the common good, such as debilitating protectionism. And in such cases, something is preventing the miracle of aggregation from fulfilling its role.

A major cause of such issues is widespread bias, which can stop the miracle of aggregation dead in its tracks. In the end, this miracle has one fatal flaw: it only works if opinions vary in all directions.

People tend to distrust the free market and underestimate its power.

Now that we know how damaging biases can be to democracy let’s examine one of the most prevalent biases out there: a mistrust of the free market.

It’s true – most people believe that any action motivated by profit is necessarily bad and antisocial. In many cases, it’s taboo to even talk about the fact that most businesses necessarily want to turn a profit. Or, as the famous twentieth-century economist Joseph Schumpeter once put it: it’s like the free market is on trial, but the entire jury has decided that they’ll vote for the death penalty, long before the trial even begins.

There’s a lot of confusion about the benefits of foreign trade.

We know now that many people don’t trust the free market, but another widespread bias is a general mistrust of foreign trade. While trade and exchange actually benefit both the buyer and the seller, people often assume that when two countries trade, only the exporter stands to benefit.

To support such claims, people often bring up statistics showing that more goods are imported into the United States than exported from it. In their minds, this means the country is handing out money to other nations.

People tend to care too much about preserving jobs.

So, we’ve unpacked a few common biases. But there’s one more that’s important to consider, and it can be a very emotional topic: jobs and, specifically, their preservation. Eliminating jobs is a surefire way for a company to invite public fury. But is laying off employees always such a bad thing?

Well, most people believe so, and as soon as a major company announces that they’ll be reducing their workforce, a media uproar ensues – especially if the company isn’t in danger of bankruptcy. When viewed this way, such a response is only fair; how dare a company make layoffs when they don’t have to?

Most people don’t vote selfishly, which, oddly enough, is problematic for democracy.

While widespread bias is a threat to democracy, it’s certainly not the only one. Democracy is facing other challenges – and this next one might come as a surprise: people aren’t selfish enough.

In the context of democracies, this means that people don’t vote as selfishly as one might imagine. After all, you would expect people to vote solely according to their interests; indeed, many people commonly complain that other voters only care about themselves, failing to see the bigger picture when casting their ballot.

Emotions run high in politics and democracy pays the price.

It’s clear that people are inherently biased and don’t tend to vote purely out of self-interest. But those aren’t the only threats to democracy; rather, they’re compounded by the reasons people do choose a particular candidate, party or political position.

We’ve already seen how common biases play a key role in the voting process by hindering the miracle of aggregation, which is fundamental to the functioning of a democracy. But there are other major influences at play, and an especially important one for voters is emotional attachment.

Voters have no reason to act rationally.

So, if we’re emotionally attached to a belief, what could make us change our minds? Well, we do tend to shift our beliefs when they appear to do us direct harm, such as when they cause us to suffer a financial loss. Ultimately, the only time we’re forced to act rationally is when our personal interests are on the line.

For instance, say you have a shop and personally believe you should only sell goods to people of a specific religion or political view. You might feel good since you can abide by your emotional beliefs – but simultaneously, you’re losing out on loads of potential customers. As soon as these lost customers start to seriously affect your bottom line, you’ll likely reconsider your beliefs, or at least their influence on your business practices.

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Worum geht es in The Myth of the Rational Voter?

The Myth of the Rational Voter (2007) is all about the barriers our democracy faces and why they matter. These blinks break down the various misconceptions people have regarding democracy, explaining how they connect to flaws in the democratic method and show why our current forms of democracy don’t work.

Bestes Zitat aus The Myth of the Rational Voter

If voters are systematically mistaken about what policies work, there is a striking implication: they will not be satisfied by the politicians they elect.

—Bryan Caplan

Wer The Myth of the Rational Voter lesen sollte

People who care about politics and leadership
Anyone with an interest in economics and its everyday applications
Any reader wondering how democratic elections can consistently produce such bad results

Über den Autor

Bryan Caplan is an American economist and professor at George Mason University. He considers himself an anarcho-capitalist and is an expert on public choice theory. In addition to The Myth of the Rational Voter, Caplan is also the author of Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids.

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