Name: Energy Myths and Realities
Rating: 3.8 (126 reviews)
Author: Vaclav Smil

What’s in it for me: Get a sober view on energy politics.

Are oil wells running dry? Will your neighborhood gas station soon only sell biofuel? Will the world be powered by giant wind farms? Can we stop global warming with carbon sequestration?

Depending on who you listen to, all four scenarios are either impossible or just around the corner.

These polar standpoints are what makes the global energy debate often so confusing: politicians, environmental groups and corporations are all shamelessly promoting their own agendas so it’s hard to know what’s fact and what’s fiction.

In these blinks, you’ll find several myths about global energy examined critically and scientifically.

You’ll find out:

why civilization won’t end anytime soon due to a lack of crude oil,
why adopting biofuels on a large scale would mean choosing between fuel and food, and
why you wouldn’t want a carbon sequestration site in your backyard.

Civilization is not nearing its end. Peak oil theories claiming so are unsupported by evidence.

In the 1990s, a group of retired geologists, in conjunction with the scientist Richard Duncan put forth a radical new theory known as peak oil.

According to this theory, humanity was depleting the world’s oil supplies at such a rate that a drastic shortage of oil was imminent. They also argued that the end of the oil era would be a turning point for humanity, prompting the end of industrial civilization as soon as 2025!

But in fact, these claims are completely unfounded and unjustified:

A big part of the problem in peak oil theories is that they are overly focused on the supply side of the equation, meaning global oil production, neglecting the demand side and how it is influenced by oil prices. They believe that progressively lower oil production we’ve seen over the years is indicative of a physical shortage of oil, when in fact it’s merely due to a decrease in demand. This phenomenon was evident after the oil price hikes of 1978 and 2004, for example.

What’s more, our future need for oil will likely decrease thanks to our increasing use of alternative fuels as well as technological innovations, efficiency improvements and better resource management.

So while humanity will eventually transition away from oil due to depleted supplies and the rising cost of its extraction, our reduction in crude oil usage will not mean the end of civilization, rather just a gradual transition to something else.

Peak oil theories are also unjustified in claiming to know how much oil is left in the ground, but really the amount of this estimated ultimately recoverable (EUR) oil remains uncertain.

Recent assessments show there are still significant untapped oil resources, and global EUR oil is estimated at 400 billion barrels – almost triple what most peak oil theories claim. And this figure does not even include unconventional oil reserves like tar sands or bitumen, which further add to the potential reserves.

Carbon sequestration is a costly, inefficient and risky way to tackle global warming.

Recently, there’s been a great deal of debate about how to counteract the global warming effect caused by excessive emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

As China and many developing countries increase their energy consumption, it is clear that global CO2 emissions will rise significantly over the next decades.

Replacing crude oil with biofuel is neither feasible nor efficient.

Lately, there’s been a lot of buzz about ethanol produced from plants as a perfect green energy source. Its proponents say it would make us independent from crude oil, lower our carbon emission and stabilize incomes for grain farmers, who would provide the raw material for its production.

Unfortunately, it’s not so simple.

Be patient: any new energy innovation will take decades to be adopted.

As you are probably beginning to see, when it comes to energy policy, there is no silver bullet, no easy and quick solution. Patience and careful analysis are needed. Remember these few rules of thumb when someone claims that the world’s energy landscape will change radically very quickly:

First, don’t underestimate how long the conventional energy sources will linger. Shifting to new kinds of fuels or energy production methods is always a gradual process. Analysis has shown that established energy supply patterns can persist over generations. So rather than rushing to embrace a new energy source like biofuel on a large scale, we should first focus on optimizing efficiency in the production and use of the incumbent sources.

Energy policy decisions should be objective, with a premium placed on avoiding environmental damage.

As humanity debates how to power our globe for the next decades, it would do well to keep in mind these three factors:

First, there are many competing ideologies and interests at play, but energy policy decisions must be made based on a rational and objective cost-benefit analysis.

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