{"id":"5fd346dd6cee07000639bf5d","slug":"the-behavioral-investor-en","title":"The Behavioral Investor","audio_url":"https://hls.blinkist.io/bibs/5fd346dd6cee07000639bf5d/5fd346dd6cee07000639bf5f-T1607681863.m4a?Expires=1656784973&Signature=Kz71MX3G9k-Tr5VW~tgh6IGKsbUa2k~YQWFf31bKZedmHMhRrvLH0KtUsQcRayv22wbi9aMJ-Y4P66fjksxllPQRvaRqfdLkwFPwepzgGGfH2OC6433Rn~nfOIB8mrHK9KZvN5AhZbDkQPxZzJ6Ax76ohfyPGFvHnC0ji1gjxLHivFdo-nX7d5k-vHxwhvBrnqAn5L2nc6XuuouV-48fo25JVGpznZQw8YWIfEUkSV3TivYm2z1D2ps7Sa5lg4xD51tbdV18p8z-NMpTGacxIKgN7raUI0ED5n3hR0dIV3hQdsQ~36XvhprFduMyx4ooDiBLlECVzcsCVCx9xS~gBg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJXJM6BB7FFZXUB4A","chapters":[{"id":"5fd346dd6cee07000639bf5f","title":"To be a successful investor, you must understand how your brain works.","text":"

What drives the stock market?

Many people think it’s money. After all, money is at the heart of every portfolio. But far more important than the money people invest are the people who invest that money in the first place. The people are the ones who make the decisions to buy, hold, and sell.

Unfortunately, those decisions are often bad. Why? Because as wonderful as our brains are, they weren’t designed to work in complex, stressful situations. So, if you want to make good financial choices, you need to realize that your brain won’t always lead you in the right direction.

The key message here is: To be a successful investor, you must understand how your brain works.

The human brain was designed to keep our prehistoric ancestors safe. And even though you probably don’t go to work facing mortal danger from saber-toothed tigers in the bush, your brain still acts as if you are.

For example, whenever you’re assessing financial risk, the brain areas responsible for avoiding attack light up. Because your brain thinks you’re being threatened, it limits its focus to these areas to keep you alive. This makes it harder for you to think clearly and makes it more likely that you’ll overlook important information.

Our brains also encourage us to be impatient. They do this by giving us a hit of dopamine – a hormone that makes us feel good – whenever we do something that results in immediate success. Because we like that feeling, we’ll do whatever it takes to get it. Sadly, that means you, as an investor, might sabotage your financial plans because you’re tempted by short-term wins instead of long-term gains.

Intellectually, you might know that it’s not a good idea to chase every opportunity to make a quick buck. But our brains are desperately money-hungry. According to Dr. Brian Knutson of Harvard University, humans are drawn to money without any reference to its actual value. This makes it difficult to resist the promise of reward.

In truth, your brain’s money-lust will always cloud your judgment. But if you’re aware of it, you’ll be better placed to overcome your brain’s impulses and stop yourself before you do the wrong thing.

"},{"id":"5fd346dd6cee07000639bf60","title":"You’re not as rational as you think.","text":"

If you study the stock market in relation to the weather, you’ll notice something strange: all around the world, people invest more in spring and summer. This behavior echoes that of our ancestors, who stockpiled food in warm seasons so they wouldn’t starve in winter.

Another interesting observation is that most markets have low returns on cloudy days. Scientists believe that this is because we aren’t as happy when it’s gloomy outside. That sadness makes us feel more vulnerable, so we’re less likely to take a gamble.

These and other patterns show that our behavior is heavily influenced by our feelings. So, instead of pretending that you’re a rational adult, it’s time to accept the truth that you’re not.

Here’s the key message: You’re not as rational as you think.

When it comes to making decisions, we humans are experts at justifying our choices. This helps us maintain the belief that we’re capable of doing the right thing. We’re also good at demonizing the option we didn’t take. This reassures us that we made the right choice.

If someone challenges our decisions, we become defensive, even if they present us with new information that shows we made a mistake. Sadly, this ego-driven desire to preserve our self-identity makes it difficult to change course if a decision doesn’t pay off. It’s the reason people cling to failing investments instead of cutting their losses and moving on.

In fact, our human need for comfort makes us prefer the familiar to the unfamiliar, even if the familiar is boring or bad. And because we have such a strong fear of loss, we hold on to what we already have, even at the expense of potential gain. This leads to all kinds of strange situations.

For instance, when the German government had to demolish a town to mine some land, they offered to rebuild it however the residents wanted. But the community chose to have the town rebuilt exactly as it had been, even though the design was neither practical nor attractive.

To succeed as an investor, you need to get used to being uncomfortable. Because the markets are constantly in flux, you’ll always face potential losses and regrets. But if you accept this, you can move forward with the best course of rational action instead of letting your emotions keep you stuck in the past or paralyzed by fear.

"},{"id":"5fd346dd6cee07000639bf61","title":"Overconfidence is a liability.","text":"

Imagine where we’d be without confidence. There’d be no scientific discoveries, innovative businesses, or countless other wonders of the modern world.

But while our human tendency to be optimistic about our circumstances can fuel a positive mind-set, it can also go too far. That’s when overconfidence leads to destructive, ego-driven behavior.

The key message here is: Overconfidence is a liability.

Typically, when investors experience wins, they believe their success is due to their unique skills and might fail to see that the whole market is up as well. Their overconfidence could cause them to keep buying, even if stock prices are already high. This goes against the “buy low, sell high” rule-of-thumb that every investor should follow.

On average, investors overestimate their yearly returns by 11.5 percent, proving that they’re not quite as skilled as they believe themselves to be. And when returns decrease, investors become less able to identify them at all. This is because their egos can’t bear to face failure. That’s why, if you want to be a successful investor, you have to leave your ego behind at the start of every day.

Overconfidence is often the reason investors fail to diversify their portfolios. When a company’s wealth is growing, investors can be fooled into believing they’ve found a sure winner. But even if a company’s stock is strong, it’s never a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket. Instead, your portfolios should have around 20 stocks each. This is crucial since the market involves lots of uncertainty and a fair amount of luck.

Diversification doesn’t just reduce the odds of catastrophic loss by spreading risk. It’s also useful when you’re trying to make market predictions. That’s because pooled judgments that take many opinions into consideration are far more successful at predicting outcomes than individual guesses. According to economist R.M. Hogarth, seeking out a dozen estimates will give you sound guidance.

Just beware that humans are always at risk of confirmation bias – where we seek out opinions that echo our own as proof that we’re right. Because of this, it’s important to obtain predictions of a stock’s performance from sources who use different forecasting methods. If you don’t, your ego will be satisfied, but you won’t benefit from the crowd’s wisdom, meaning you won’t make informed decisions.

"},{"id":"5fd346dd6cee07000639bf62","title":"To invest successfully, you must embrace the unfamiliar.","text":"

Many people consider the Mona Lisa to be the pinnacle of artistic excellence. So, it may surprise you to learn that the painting was relatively unknown until 1911 when it was stolen from the Louvre.

For two days, no one even noticed it was missing from the museum. But newspaper articles about the theft created a media sensation. Two years later, when the painting was finally recovered, people flocked to see it. So, it was the painting’s scandalous story, not its artistic merit, that made it so popular.

This story reveals the human tendency to value what’s familiar. Because it takes a lot of energy for your brain to make difficult decisions, it looks for ways to cut corners by defaulting to what it already knows. Sadly, when it comes to investing, this tendency puts your portfolio at risk.

Here’s the key message: To invest successfully, you must embrace the unfamiliar.

If you still doubt that humans prefer the familiar, just think about the stock ticker names that grab your attention. Many investors favor those that are easy to pronounce, like MOO, and consistently dismiss ones that aren’t, like NTT.

Similarly, the tendency to prefer the familiar is the reason people overinvest in domestic stocks. Theoretically, the split of equities across your portfolio should correspond with the size of each country’s market. But in practice, this rarely happens.

For example, British investors tend to fill 80 percent of their portfolios with homegrown stocks, even though the UK holds just 10 percent of the world’s market value. This home bias means investors are missing out on international opportunities. It also puts portfolios at risk in the event of a disaster.

Of course, no one likes to believe that catastrophe will hit them. Instead, normalcy bias makes us think we’ve already experienced everything we’re going to. That’s why people often wait until the last minute before evacuating in the face of a natural disaster.

To be a behavioral investor, you have to accept that there will always be upheaval in the financial world. To counter this uncertainty, you should build diverse portfolios to carry you through the natural highs and lows.

"},{"id":"5fd346dd6cee07000639bf63","title":"To invest successfully, you must broaden your views.","text":"

In the 1690s, colonial Massachusetts was gripped by a fear of witches. Women accused of witchcraft were tried according to a ludicrous procedure. If a woman floated when thrown in deep water, she was convicted of witchcraft and sentenced to death. If she drowned, she was deemed innocent. So, regardless of the verdict, the accused would always die.

Why did the panicking residents fail to see the absurdity of the witch trials? Well, as humans, our attention is always drawn to situations that are high risk but low probability – in other words, those that whip our emotions into a frenzy. This attentional bias makes us fixate on limited information, ignoring other relevant data.

But investing always carries an element of risk, so you need to think expansively and don’t overlook the obvious.

The key message here is: To invest successfully, you must broaden your views.

In a high-risk situation, it’s easy to become blind to simple solutions. That’s why many investors looking for an edge in the financial market end up with overly complicated strategies.

And yet data analysis company Morningstar discovered that it isn’t a brilliant manager or a state-of-the-art process that predicts a fund’s performance. It’s investment fees. But if you’re consumed by a desire to succeed – and a fear of failure – you’re at risk of overlooking this simple evaluation tool.

Another mistake is when investors focus on a stock’s performance over a limited timeframe. This is especially common if your investment decisions are guided by probability, which works best over extended periods of time.

So, if you look at the market on any given day, it’ll seem random. If you take a step back and look at monthly trends, you still won’t find much evidence that you’ve invested wisely. But if you zoom out and look at annual performance, you’ll see the big picture. Unfortunately, many investors panic before they’ve given stocks enough time to reveal their true value.

To be a behavioral investor, you need to take the long view. The first step is to examine your portfolio for any stocks at risk of bankruptcy or fraud and get rid of them. Next, diversify to avoid catastrophe. Finally, place your trust in time. This will help you through any short-term failures.

"},{"id":"5fd346de6cee07000639bf64","title":"To invest successfully, you must manage your emotions.","text":"

How many emotions do you think a human being can experience?

Seventeenth-century French natural scientist René Descartes believed we had just six core emotions. But modern scientists take a different view. Dr. Watt Smith, author of The Book of Human Emotions: An Encyclopedia of Feeling from Anger to Wanderlust, has identified over 150 different emotions. What’s more, these emotions can combine to create complex secondary feelings like nostalgia, which blends longing and sadness with joy.

Every day, while you’re making financial decisions, the array of emotions you’re experiencing is at play. It’s important not to underestimate how powerful they are and how much they can influence the choices you make. Because, when it comes to investing, emotions are a serious liability.

Here’s the key message: To invest successfully, you must manage your emotions.

How you perceive any situation is influenced by your shifting emotional landscape. Similarly, what you do with your money depends on how it makes you feel.

Just look at the work of Nobel Prize–winning economist Richard Thaler, who discovered that how we label buckets of money affects our decisions. For instance, we’ll save money labeled “rebates” but spend any “bonuses.”

Goals-based investing – also known as personal benchmarking – is based on this tendency. To use it, divide your money into three buckets – safety, income, and growth – then invest accordingly, using your emotions to guide you.

While you can use emotions as part of your strategy, feelings aren’t always helpful when it comes to investing. That’s because strong emotions lead us to make bad decisions. You can counter this by slowing down your thinking, which is a skill you can learn through meditation.

Mindfulness exercises heighten your awareness by creating space to consider the details of a situation. This prevents you from falling back on those familiar options and leads you to stronger and more considered decisions over time.

Meditation is now seen as such a valuable tool for investors that companies like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs have programs for their staff. Since it lowers activity in areas of the brain that control greed, investors who meditate regularly are less likely to make mistakes by chasing fast rewards.

So, even though you may think of yourself as a well-regulated individual, remember that emotions are so universal that most of the time, you don’t even notice them. But if you can pay attention to your emotions, you’ll know when to be guided by them and when to regulate them instead.

"},{"id":"5fd346de6cee07000639bf65","title":"To be a successful investor, you must understand how influential your intuition is.","text":"

Your brain is a data-processing powerhouse. In fact, it can process over eleven million bits of data at any given time. And yet only around 50 of these bits become conscious thoughts. That means the vast majority of your brain’s processing power is dedicated to your subconscious mind.

When you consider how little processing power our brain dedicates to conscious decisions, it’s not surprising that many investors believe in trusting their gut instincts. But this is not a reliable investment strategy.

The key message here is: To be a successful investor, you must understand how influential your intuition is.

Conscious thought is extremely skilled at making simple decisions. But it’s not that useful when you need to make a complicated choice.

The more you consider your options, the harder it is to make a decision. That’s because it’s difficult to figure out which aspects are more important. And while you’re struggling to weigh up the pros and cons, you become less confident about your ability to make a solid choice.

Humans can only make sound decisions when outcomes are predictable, the situation is static, and there’s plenty of quality feedback available to guide us. Sadly, you’ll never find these characteristics in capital markets. So, if you’re an investor, you need to accept that conscious thinking isn’t the best decision-making tool.

Luckily, you can turn to model-based approaches – like using extrapolation algorithms – to compensate for your brain’s shortcomings. In fact, when it comes to decision-making, models perform just as well as humans – and sometimes even better – a startling 94 percent of the time. This makes them invaluable during moments of intense stress and at other times when human judgment is clouded by fear.

As an investor, you’ll be exposed to constant financial news, endless opinions, as well as the greed of others and yourself. Without a solid model in place to help you make good decisions, you’ll inevitably crack under the stress. But if you’ve committed to following a model, your investment decisions won’t be at the mercy of how you feel.

"},{"id":"5fd346de6cee07000639bf66","title":"To be a successful investor, you must manage your fear of market bubbles.","text":"

During the dot.com boom, investors went internet-mad, buying up shares in companies with tech-sounding names. This led to some hilarious scenarios, like the share price for Mannatech Inc. skyrocketing by 368 percent in the first two days of its public offering. No one realized that Mannatech had nothing to do with the internet. It manufactured laxatives.

Bubbles like the dot.com boom are a bit like falling in love. We become infatuated with an idea – such as the notion that every tech company will make us rich. We also get so caught up in our romance that we ignore all the warning signs. Eventually, reality sets in, the bubble bursts, and we have to pick up the pieces.

Here’s the key message: To be a successful investor, you must manage your fear of market bubbles.

Although few investors want to acknowledge it, bubbles are a natural part of capital markets. And yet bubbles also aren’t as common as you might think.

Between 1800 and 1940, there were just 23 bubbles in the UK and US markets. But because the experience of them is so traumatizing, they tend to dominate public memory. That’s why American investors trading in the 1980s will fixate on the crash of 1987, forgetting that US stocks rose 400 percent over that decade.

Unfortunately, knowing the truth about bubbles doesn’t remove the widespread fear of them. In fact, fear of bubbles is powerful enough to paralyze investors, which is why it’s so important that you learn how to manage your emotions. Otherwise, you’ll end up stuck when you’d be better off embracing opportunity instead.

To navigate through the inevitable rise and fall of the market, create a rules-based system that will guide you to becoming more conservative when things are unstable. That way, you can focus on being patient and acting infrequently, rather than behaving reactively based on how you feel on any given day.

A common system to achieve this is a momentum-based model with a 200-day moving average. Following this model means holding assets when their price is above their 200-day average and selling them when it drops below that number. A similar model is based on a ten-month moving average.

Lengthy periods of inactivity seem at odds with the frenetic pace of the stock market. But they give you enough time to shift the odds in your favor. By committing to your system even in the face of fear, you’ll better manage your emotions and overcome the instincts that drive you toward poor decisions.

"}]}

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