Calling Bullshit summary

Before we get into how to disprove bullshit, let’s ask a simple question. What exactly is bullshit?

According to the authors, bullshit arises out of a determination to impress or persuade people. Bullshitters care more about winning the argument than about whether they’re telling the truth. 

Not all bullshit scientific studies produce surprising results. Some, in fact, produce results that are incredibly obvious. For instance, a recent study looking at college students found a correlation between positive self-esteem and having had a first kiss before starting college.

But what does that result actually prove? Does it mean that naturally confident people start kissing younger? Or is the first kiss the cause of a boost in self-esteem?

One evening, one of the authors – Carl – found himself in a hotel lobby and in need of a hot drink. He picked up a packet of cocoa. Not wanting to dose up on caffeine before bed, Carl decided to check the packaging and was pleased to read that it was “99.9 percent caffeine free.” Until he thought about it for a moment.

It turns out that a Starbucks coffee contains 415 milligrams of caffeine per 20 ounces, making a standard cup approximately 0.075 percent caffeine. Which means that coffee itself is 99.9 percent caffeine free.

Statistics are all around us. But where do they come from? How do we know, for example, that Dutch men are the world’s tallest? Very often, the data used is only a sample. In the Netherlands, they didn’t measure every single man, but rather just a sample from across the population.

But imagine if that sample had included a basketball team.

Using modern technology, graphic designers can create elaborate and sometimes ridiculous diagrams – like a chart about goats that’s made to fit into the shape of a ram’s horn, or a “subway map” of Bible books or music genres.

Those things may simply offer a fun way of listing a few facts or points about something. But that doesn’t mean that conventional-looking graphs are automatically more serious or accurate. If you’re looking at a bar chart, always check that the y-axis goes all the way down to zero. If it doesn’t, you won’t see things in the correct proportion.

One of the great things about science is that it corrects itself. If one study finds an interesting result, others will try to replicate it, ironing out any problems and gradually making progress.

That means that there’s really no such thing as absolute scientific truth. Rather, science is simply the accumulation of all the experiments that have been done up until now.

Journalists don’t get everything right, especially when they report on science. But one habit of theirs is well worth bearing in mind. When you’re trying to work out whether something is true, ask three questions, like a journalist would: Who is behind this information? How did they get it? And what are they trying to sell?

It’s not the only way we can identify bullshit – but it’s a great way to start.