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Zusammenfassung von Calling Bullshit

Name: Calling Bullshit
Rating: 4.4 (117 reviews)
Author: Carl T. Bergstrom, Jevin D. West

Carl T. Bergstrom, Jevin D. West

The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World

4.4 (117 Bewertungen)

26 Min.

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Calling Bullshit
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What’s in it for me? Learn how to spot bullshit.

These days, we’re all being fed information, all the time. On our phones, at work, on the news, everywhere. But a lot of the stuff we’re fed is, unfortunately, bullshit.

Even if you’re aware of it, it can still be hard to know what to do about it. Lies can spread like wildfire, and it’s incredibly difficult to call them out.

But we’ve all got to make the effort. In these blinks, you’ll learn about some of the most common types of bullshit out there, with a special focus on science and statistics, and discover how to exercise the delicate art of skepticism.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

whether criminals really have differently shaped heads from the rest of us;
why rising house prices probably don’t lead to a decline in fertility; and
why scientific publication suffers from selection bias.

We all need to be alert to the dangers of bullshit.

In 1998, the medical journal The Lancet published a study co-written by British physician Andrew Wakefield. It claimed that there may be a link between the widely used MMR vaccine and autism.

But there wasn’t. Multiple later studies found no link at all, and it turned out that Wakefield’s study was deeply flawed. The Lancet even retracted the paper in 2010. It now counts as one of the most comprehensively discredited studies of all time. It was bullshit.

And yet its influence has been huge. The “antivax” movement is still going strong, vaccine rates in the US are lower than they were before, and cases of measles are up.

The sad truth is that it’s far, far easier to make people believe bullshit than it is to make them change their minds.

But we all have a duty to try.

The key message here is: We all need to be alert to the dangers of bullshit.

Bullshit isn’t just a modern phenomenon. Back in ancient Greece, Plato accused the Sophists, a rival school of philosophy, of dealing in bullshit. He said they were only interested in winning arguments, not in what was actually true.

The twenty-first century, however, provides bullshit with an especially fertile breeding ground. These days, bullshit often claims to be rigorously grounded in science, like Wakefield’s vaccination study. Or it uses seemingly irrefutable evidence like photographs.

You might remember a story that came out after the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013. The story claimed that an eight-year-old girl from Sandy Hook Elementary School had been killed – there was even a photo of her running. The story was shared by more than 92,000 people on social media.

You guessed it: it was false. The girl in the photo hadn’t even run the race – it wasn’t open to children. But the story just proved too irresistible not to share.

That’s just one example of how modern technology like social media can spur bullshit on. If bullshit like the vaccination study can catch on as widely as it did back in 1998, imagine the harm that can be done in the age of Twitter.

Factor in our hyperpartisan news networks, factories churning out fake news, and the ease of image manipulation, and we’ve got ourselves a full-on bullshit crisis. We need to take action – now.

Bullshitters try to persuade people to believe something is true, without really caring about the evidence.

Before we get into how to disprove bullshit, let’s ask a simple question. What exactly is bullshit?

According to the authors, bullshit arises out of a determination to impress or persuade people. Bullshitters care more about winning the argument than about whether they’re telling the truth.

Correlation does not imply causation.

Not all bullshit scientific studies produce surprising results. Some, in fact, produce results that are incredibly obvious. For instance, a recent study looking at college students found a correlation between positive self-esteem and having had a first kiss before starting college.

But what does that result actually prove? Does it mean that naturally confident people start kissing younger? Or is the first kiss the cause of a boost in self-esteem?

It’s disturbingly easy to make numbers say anything you want them to.

One evening, one of the authors – Carl – found himself in a hotel lobby and in need of a hot drink. He picked up a packet of cocoa. Not wanting to dose up on caffeine before bed, Carl decided to check the packaging and was pleased to read that it was “99.9 percent caffeine free.” Until he thought about it for a moment.

It turns out that a Starbucks coffee contains 415 milligrams of caffeine per 20 ounces, making a standard cup approximately 0.075 percent caffeine. Which means that coffee itself is 99.9 percent caffeine free.

When the data you use for a test isn’t neutral, the results will show selection bias.

Statistics are all around us. But where do they come from? How do we know, for example, that Dutch men are the world’s tallest? Very often, the data used is only a sample. In the Netherlands, they didn’t measure every single man, but rather just a sample from across the population.

But imagine if that sample had included a basketball team.

Don’t be dazzled by big data and machine learning – the underlying data still has to be sound.

Using modern technology, graphic designers can create elaborate and sometimes ridiculous diagrams – like a chart about goats that’s made to fit into the shape of a ram’s horn, or a “subway map” of Bible books or music genres.

Those things may simply offer a fun way of listing a few facts or points about something. But that doesn’t mean that conventional-looking graphs are automatically more serious or accurate. If you’re looking at a bar chart, always check that the y-axis goes all the way down to zero. If it doesn’t, you won’t see things in the correct proportion.

The imperfections of modern science mean that bullshit creeps in everywhere.

One of the great things about science is that it corrects itself. If one study finds an interesting result, others will try to replicate it, ironing out any problems and gradually making progress.

That means that there’s really no such thing as absolute scientific truth. Rather, science is simply the accumulation of all the experiments that have been done up until now.

Through a few simple techniques, you can equip yourself in the fight against bullshit.

Journalists don’t get everything right, especially when they report on science. But one habit of theirs is well worth bearing in mind. When you’re trying to work out whether something is true, ask three questions, like a journalist would: Who is behind this information? How did they get it? And what are they trying to sell?

It’s not the only way we can identify bullshit – but it’s a great way to start.

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Worum geht es in Calling Bullshit?

Calling Bullshit (2020) is a guide to navigating the huge amounts of bullshit that surround us. By being alert to the ways in which data and scientific processes get manipulated, we can learn to call out bullshit when we see it.

Bestes Zitat aus Calling Bullshit

Bullshit pollutes our world by misleading people about specific issues, and it undermines our ability to trust information in general.

—Carl T. Bergstrom, Jevin D. West

Wer Calling Bullshit lesen sollte

Popular science fans who want to see behind the curtain
Data nerds who want to learn more
Concerned citizens eager to fight misinformation

Über den Autor

Jevin D. West and Carl T. Bergstrom are both scientists at the University of Washington. West, a data scientist, is an associate professor in the Information School and director of the Center for an Informed Public, and his research focuses on misinformation. Bergstrom is a professor of biology who looks at how information flows through networks both biological and social.

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