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Zusammenfassung von How to Future

Name: How to Future
Rating: 4.1 (71 reviews)
Author: Scott Smith with Madeline Ashby

Scott Smith with Madeline Ashby

Leading and Sense-making in an Age of Hyperchange

4.1 (71 Bewertungen)

25 Min.

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What’s in it for me? Learn how to prepare for several possible futures.

What comes to mind when you hear the words the future? Sci-fi spacecraft? A utopian colony on Mars? Or do you simply think of tomorrow, when you'll wake up and go to work?

Though we tend to talk of the future, there are in fact infinite possible futures. Some are as fantastical as any sci-fi novel; others are as pedestrian as a day at work. Some are in the distant future; others are a few hours away.

And some, like waking up tomorrow, are likely to occur, while others, that Martian colony perhaps, aren’t so probable. So how do you tell which is which, and how do you prepare for the most likely ones? That's where futuring comes in, a technique that allows you to prepare for multiple possible futures and prosper along the way.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

why preparing for only one possible future isn’t enough;
why changing trends in information and habits provide clues about the future; and
how to write a compelling story about a possible future scenario.

Futuring offers a structured way to plan for multiple future scenarios.

In today’s world, different versions of the future are influenced by events, activists, leaders, and innovators. Indeed, we hire, elect, and promote people to plan what will happen in the future for us.

By doing so, we’re choosing people to engage in futuring, the practice of researching and constructing plausible futures. Futuring is vital for human advancement; in the bigger scheme of things, it can help us mitigate the possible repercussions of climate change. And on a smaller scale, it can also allow corporations to future-proof themselves against different possible market turns.

But the practice of futuring isn’t restricted to big names in business, politics, and science. All of us should be futuring regularly. Whether it’s regarding your personal future or that of your business, futuring is guaranteed to help you get a better idea of where you might end up in the next five, ten, or even 20 years.

The key message here is: Futuring offers a structured way to plan for multiple future scenarios.

When you future, you try to broaden your understanding of what’s happening in the world, an industry, or some other specific area. For instance, imagine you’re trying to plan a weekend excursion to the seaside. You can’t be certain that your trip will fall on a sunny day. But you can use weather apps and your knowledge of the region during this time of year to make a pretty accurate forecast.

Now, using futuring in preparation for a trip to the beach is simple enough. But how do you future for more complex questions, like how to address challenges that don’t even exist yet? For that, you need a structured approach that can be repeated and refined over time.

But there’s one big problem: nothing is certain. You can’t be sure what’s going to happen, so why even try to predict it? At the end of the day, uncertainty is here to stay. But by gauging which scenarios are more plausible than others, you can whittle down the infinite number of possible futures to a smaller list more relevant to your current project, problem, or situation.

The following blinks explain the method to the madness that’s futuring. The end goal is to equip you with the tools to outline multiple plausible futures. This, in turn, will guide your strategic decisions, whether you’re developing an AI product, leading a country, or just deciding what to do with the next ten years of your life.

Before starting a futuring exercise, establish its scope.

Imagine that you’ve been asked to lead a futuring project and that your client is a company creating a new alternative-energy technology. This company knows that the way people consume energy is constantly changing. It’s also aware that, with climate change on the move, we need more long-term sustainable-energy sources to save the planet and our economy. You’ve been tasked with devising a future-proof strategy that will ensure this new technology stands the test of time.

But where do you begin? Futures are vast, and there’s no way to consider every single possibility. So how can you zoom in?

Sense signals from diverse sources to gain an informed view of evolving trends.

Day in and day out, you’re constantly bombarded by information. News updates. Fashion trends. Price changes. It can be overwhelming. It can also help you forecast the future.

How? Well, each piece of information is also a signal, which the authors define as anything that delivers some insight into the future. Each signal, however large or small, gives you a hint of what might happen tomorrow.

Scan for signals relevant to your futuring project to pinpoint trends and the driving forces behind them.

Sensing is something you can do continuously. All it requires is your curious attention. Think of sensing as a way of keeping up with the world. You might read the newspaper and notice that a soap shop is going out of business. But to learn about the reasons for its closure, and the economic shifts that led consumers to go elsewhere for their soaps, you need a more targeted approach.

When conducting a futuring exercise, you have to sift through countless signals – and find those connected to the specific futures you’re exploring. To do so, you need to harness the power of scanning.

Use the STEEP framework to identify and organize trends.

At this point, you’ve scanned for signals and sources related to your project and identified a number of trends. And you know that behind each trend is a driving force – a driver. This driver might be a change in society, technology, or the environment.

At this point, you need to start considering how to evaluate and visualize this information. It’s helpful to sort each trend into one of the following categories, which collectively make up the STEEP framework: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, or Political.

Map the probability and projected impact of trends onto future horizons.

Hopefully, you still have your STEEP chart of trends handy, because you’re going to need it for a bit longer.

So far, your STEEP chart lists the trends you’re tracking, their detailed descriptions, and which categories they fit into. But to take your STEEP game to the next level, you need to consider each trend’s horizon and probability.

Create a rough draft roadmap of trends to generate future threads.

With the help of your futuring team, you’ve just finished mapping the trends you’ve identified onto future horizons. It’s now time to start playing out possible future sequences of events – and their repercussions.

For example, what would happen if the solar panels and wind turbines turned out to be less efficient and affordable than planned?

Detailed stories from recognized themes make each scenario more compelling.

After getting threads down on paper, you can move on to fleshing them out into easy-to-imagine hypothetical stories. By doing so, you’ll create compelling narratives that you can share with your client’s potential investors, customers, or even communities that might be affected by one of your client’s futuring projects.

The key message here is: Detailed stories from recognized themes make each scenario more compelling.

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Worum geht es in How to Future?

How to Future (2020) arms you with a structured approach to prepare for multiple futures, as a business and an individual. In a fast-moving world where so much seems unpredictable, we can orient ourselves toward plausible future scenarios by recognizing changing trends in information – and using these observations to inform strategic decisions. In a business setting, effective futuring can mean the difference between relevance and obsolescence.

Wer How to Future lesen sollte

Business or government leaders looking to future-proof their organizations
Knowledge-hungry people interested in futurology
Futurist writers looking to hone their skills

Über den Autor

Scott Smith is the founder and managing partner of Changeist, a consulting company that conducts futures research for businesses, NGOs, and governments. Changeist’s clients include Nokia, NASA, UNICEF, and the UK government. This is his first book.

Madeline Ashby is a science-fiction writer and consulting futurist. In addition to authoring Company Town and the Machine Dynasty book series, Ashby has also written numerous short stories and is a regular contributor to Slate and the MIT Technology Review.

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