The Prepared Leader summary

The COVID-19 pandemic took us all by surprise, right? Well, maybe not everyone. There were journalists, scientists, and epidemiologists who’d been warning us for decades that a viral worldwide pandemic was likely to happen. But, in the end, most of us weren’t prepared. While it’s hard to add up the cost, in both human and economic terms, some economists have suggested that the pandemic could end up as a $12 trillion loss. In 2020 alone, labor income losses totaled $3.7 trillion.

It’s true that we could have done a better job of heeding the warning signs, but it’s also true that human beings are simply ill-suited to preparing for future crises.

In the simplest terms, human evolution has caused us to prioritize the dangers that are here and now over the possibility of future threats. Because of this, we have a bunch of cognitive biases that get in the way of preparedness.

One such bias is known as probability neglect, which means that even if we see a threat brewing halfway around the world, we tend to dismiss it or underestimate the impact it could have on us.

Another is the anchoring effect. This refers to the way we tend to latch on to a first impression, and how we refuse to budge from it even when all signs point to it being wrong. Likewise, the more time and money we invest in a possible solution, the more difficult it becomes for us to change course, even when it’s clear that the solution won’t work.

But there is a silver lining: once you’re aware of these biases, you can take steps to overcome them. It will take some active effort on your part, but there’s no reason you can’t become the kind of leader who not only recognizes and manages a crisis but comes out on top. That’s right, you can be the boss who replaces panic and neglect with preparedness and poise.

One of the best examples of this is Adam Silver, the commissioner of the National Basketball Association (NBA). On March 11, 2020 – the same day the World Health Organization made the pandemic official – Silver put the NBA season on suspension. This is something that had never happened in league history. But Silver had been paying strict attention to what had been brewing the past few months and took action based on what he saw were “the facts.”

Perhaps most importantly, Silver wasn’t acting as his own counsel on the matter. He went outside his immediate circle and reached out to scientists, physicians, and trainers in order to get the best possible picture of what the COVID-19 threat looked like. With those added perspectives on the crisis, he decided to cancel the season – a decision that would no doubt cost the NBA tons of money. 

But that’s not the end of the story. Silver put together a diverse brain trust of health-care and sports experts to build the first “bubble.” At a cost of around $190 million, this was another expensive decision since it involved creating what was essentially a small city in Florida where all the players and team members could live in isolation. But with “the bubble” in place, the league was able to play 172 games, with zero cases of COVID. In the end, Silver’s decision not only kept people safe – and showed the world how a business could continue to operate during a raging pandemic – it allowed the NBA to come out on top and earn $1.5 billion in revenue.

What Silver did is a classic example of the agency of leadership during a crisis. As a leader, it’s essentially your responsibility to take action.

In the sections ahead, we’ll get into more detail on the skills you can develop in order to be the most prepared leader you can be.