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Zusammenfassung von The Next Decade

Name: The Next Decade
Rating: 4.1 (87 reviews)
Author: George Friedman

George Friedman

Empire and Republic in a Changing World

4.1 (87 Bewertungen)

19 Min.

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Krisen & Skandale Politik der USA Globale Politik

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The Next Decade
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What’s in it for me? Get fascinating insights into the geopolitics of the coming decade.

World history is full of the chronicles of dominant empires: Rome, China, Spain and Great Britain, to name just a few, have all changed the course of history, and each has had an immense and lasting geopolitical impact.

Since the fall of the USSR, a new empire with far-reaching influence has emerged: the United States. But unlike past empires, the United States didn’t attain its position by colonizing much of the world – it is an unintended empire.

Even so, this unintended empire’s geopolitical decisions are still centered on its own security and broader interests. For a clearer idea of where the world might be in the next decade, one must look at this decade’s international geopolitics from the perspective of the United States.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

why Iran is the key to US policies in the Middle East;
why Pakistan, not Afghanistan, should be a country of focus for the United States; and
why Turkey will become an important ally for the United States in the near future.

The United States has the power of an empire that future presidents will have to wield wisely.

As the United States consolidates its influence over the rest of the world, it now faces the same challenge that ancient Rome once dealt with: maintaining an empire without relinquishing the republic.

The United States wields power that is disproportionate to its geographic size and population. The country’s military, for example, remains unchallenged by any other, and its economy produces more than three times that of its closest competitor.

This unique status as the world’s major superpower brings particular dangers, such as the attacks of September 11, 2001, which targeted the United States as a symbol of geopolitical domination.

To achieve its future goals, the United States will rely heavily on one person: the country’s president.

The president of the United States is the most powerful political leader in the world, one whose decisions regarding war, peace and economics reverberate across the globe and affect billions of lives. The invasion of Iraq, for example, has shaken the entire Middle East to its core for the past ten years, and has also resulted in the waves of refugees now seeking safety and security in nearby Europe.

Dealing with the realities of empire management doesn’t leave room for the president to exercise virtue. To protect American interests, the president will need to adopt an unsentimental approach: identify the most dangerous enemies, build necessary coalitions and manage them.

Ultimately, this will mean abandoning old alliances, such as NATO, the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, and following the pragmatic example of past leaders who ruthlessly protected American interests.

For example, former President Franklin D. Roosevelt helped defeat the Third Reich during World War II by forming an alliance with Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, despite the latter’s totalitarian rule and ruthless policies toward his own people.

Solving financial crises requires more political actions than economic decisions.

In the past decade, two massive events have occurred that will shape how our near future unfolds: the financial crisis of 2008 and the response of US President George W. Bush to the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001.

The financial crisis of 2008 was the biggest economic catastrophe since the Great Depression. Even so, similar economic downturns that took place since World War II offer some insights into the ways these events can be properly managed.

US policy in the Middle East following September 11th must be reformed in the coming decade.

The United States was at war for only 17 percent of the entire twentieth century. In the twenty-first century, however, it has been at war perpetually. So why did the United States end up in this situation, and what must it do to change it?

Before September 11th, US policy in the Middle East followed the old strategy of balancing power to maintain the status quo.

Iran is now the geopolitical center of gravity in the Middle East.

The US invasion of Iraq had an enormous impact on the balance of power between Iran and Iraq. The withdrawal of American forces has changed this balance yet again.

Iran is a force to be reckoned with, in part due to its relatively large population. Its neighbor Iraq has a population of only 30 million; in Saudi Arabia it’s 27 million. Iran, however, boasts a population of 70 million.

Turkey will grow to be a challenger to Iranian domination in the Middle East.

The United States has no intention of leaving Iran completely free to maneuver in the Middle East – at least not without throwing a wrench in the works.

Within a few years, the United States will have to readjust the balance of power in the Middle East, and the only US-friendly regional power for this task in the long run is Turkey.

Pakistan, rather than Afghanistan, should be the real focus of US foreign policy.

The region between the eastern Mediterranean and the Hindu Kush is a clear focus of US foreign policy: maintaining the regional balance of power, preserving the flow of oil and eliminating Islamist groups are the main goals the United States is pursuing in the region.

Though the United States was very active in Afghanistan for some time, the country is strategically secondary to neighboring Pakistan in achieving the United States’ goals in the region.

Russia is back at the center of the international stage.

When the Soviet Union fell in the early 1990s, many stopped thinking of Russia as an international player. But looking at Russia’s position in world politics today, it seems these commentators spoke too soon.

When he took office in 2000, Vladimir Putin began emphasizing Russia’s dependence on a strong state. He started restoring Russian power on the international stage by rebuilding the Russian army and flexing the country’s military muscle.

The European Union will grow weaker in the next decade.

Over the coming years, geopolitical tensions are likely to become more severe within European countries, thus making the future of the European Union uncertain.

Specifically, the European Union faces two problems in the years ahead. The first is the kind of relationship it wants to develop with a resurgent Russia. The second is determining how Germany, the most dynamic of European economies, should be situated within the Union.

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Worum geht es in The Next Decade?

The Next Decade (2011) offers us a glimpse into the future, exploring the ways in which the United States’ attempts to maintain its dominant position on the international stage will shape events in countries and regions around the world.

Wer The Next Decade lesen sollte

Students of history or political science
Anyone interested in a vivid forecast of the future of international politics
Avid readers and news junkies eager for a fresh perspective on foreign affairs

Über den Autor

George Friedman is a political scientist and best-selling author whose works include The Next 100 Years and America's Secret War. He is also the founder, CEO and CIO of STRATFOR, a private intelligence and forecasting corporation.

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