The Triangle of Power summary

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a point of no return. From the outset, it was clear this war wouldn’t fit the patterns of earlier crises. There was no uniform response. Each state reacted according to its own security concerns, resources, and long-term ambitions. What may appear as hesitation or disloyalty was often a strategic calculation.

Russia’s decision to wage war was rooted in a national narrative. Russian history is taught as a cycle of encirclement and survival. The lesson is that power is earned through strength rather than diplomacy or mediation. Russia never truly embraced the liberal order that followed the Cold War. Its worldview treats international politics as a zero-sum contest where dominance leads to legitimacy. Ukraine occupies a central place in this thinking, viewed as essential to restoring its imperial stature. This belief extends well beyond the Kremlin.

The Global West is made up of the US, Europe, and its democratic partners, like Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada. This group grew out of a long experiment in political and economic freedom. Across its societies, democracy and capitalism evolved in different shapes, from Scandinavia’s expansive welfare states to the leaner market-driven systems of the US. What links them is a shared commitment to open societies, individual choice, and the rule of law.

Still, that legacy is complex. While the Western-designed international system helped spread growth and development, it also coexisted with colonialism, proxy wars, and persistent inequality. Those tensions never fully disappeared, and today, the Global West finds itself at a decisive moment. Its institutions are resilient, its economies deep, and its technological base formidable. Whether that translates into lasting leadership depends on how seriously the West confronts its own internal pressures while engaging a world that no longer grants it the benefit of the doubt.

As the old center of gravity loosens, two forces are reshaping the global balance from the outside in: the Global East and the Global South. They are different in composition, outlook, and ambition, yet together they are redefining how power is exercised, negotiated, and contested.

In the triangle of power, the Global East has emerged as the most direct challenger to the liberal world order. At its core stand China, Russia, and Iran, with North Korea increasingly operating alongside them. This is not an ideological bloc. What binds these states is a convergence of interests and a shared resistance to Western dominance, especially that of the US. The Global East works transactionally, forming flexible partnerships that advance influence, regime security, and regional ambition.

For a long time, global competition followed predictable lines. But these days, power is distributed across multiple centers, and competition runs through nearly every layer of international life.

Alongside the headline rivalry between the United States and China, regional powers are asserting themselves, forming flexible groupings to extend reach. This crowded landscape makes outcomes harder to predict. 

Some challenges simply ignore borders. Climate change is the most visible, but it sits alongside pandemics, financial instability, food security, technological disruption, migration, water scarcity, and waste. No country, however powerful, can manage these alone.

Shared problems create shared exposure. Cooperation, then, is not an idealistic preference. It is a structural necessity. The real question is whether it can be made effective in a world shaped by rivalry and mistrust.