Iran's Grand Strategy summary

While Iran sided with Britain after World War II, Britain exploited the country through a one-sided oil deal that was unsustainable. In 1951, Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh attempted to renegotiate Iran’s oil deal. When talks failed, he boldly nationalized the oil industry. This dramatic move alienated Britain and the United States while inadvertently boosting communist influence at home.

As a result, in 1953, Mossadegh was ousted in a coup driven largely by Iranian military actors but encouraged by foreign powers. The Shah seized the opportunity to consolidate his rule and align closely with Washington, paving the way for the 1963 White Revolution, which saw sweeping reforms that included land redistribution, women’s suffrage, and rapid industrialization, but also repression, corruption, and the removal of his political opponents.

One person saw Iran’s revolution, and the chaos surrounding the hostage crisis as an irresistible opportunity. Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein decided to invade Iran in 1980, thinking it was the perfect time for a quick and easy takeover. He was wrong. The Iran–Iraq War would last eight grueling years. And perhaps more than any other event, it shaped the foundation of modern Iran’s grand strategy.

During this war, the policy known as Sacred Defense was created. Sacred Defense casts military action and policies as part of an existential security and defense strategy. In some cases, as when Iraq invaded in 1980, there was a literal need to defend, but in other cases, such as when Iran tried to turn the tables and invade parts of Iraq, Sacred Defense became about preserving holy shrines in Iraq or toppling Hussein as an act of self-preservation. In either case, Sacred Defense mobilized the nation, inspiring such fervor that even children and the elderly joined the fight, while aligning industries, universities, and infrastructure toward the war effort.

When the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988, neither side won, but that’s the thing about Iran’s defensive strategy: survival itself is success. The policy shaped by the long, brutal Iran-Iraq War shaped policy well beyond Khomeini’s death in 1989. His successor, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stayed committed to the vision of an Islamic state apart from the world. 

But the war also left Iran depleted and in need of rebuilding. So, for the next sixteen years, two pragmatic and reform-minded presidents made progress in developing the nation and rebuilding infrastructure. They encouraged private enterprise and cautiously reopened trade with Europe and Asia, while scaling back on the more overtly revolutionary tactics abroad. The presidential efforts toward international diplomacy reached its peak in the 2015 nuclear deal that briefly eased sanctions. But the US withdrawal in 2018 effectively closed that opening and reignited Iran’s anti-American furor.

Iran’s forward defense strategy has made strides over the past couple decades in increasing its influence in the region. However, it always comes at a cost. 

While the hardliners may believe that isolation is forever part of Iran’s identity, and that militant aggression is necessary for survival, this hasn’t inspired Iranians with hope for the future.