Philip E. Tetlock, the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, specializes in political science and psychology. The leader of the forecasting study Good Judgment Project, he has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals.
Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. Author of the influential books Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and Future Babble, Gardner has also lectured internationally at government events and for corporations such as Google and Siemens.
We live in a society that pushes us to fear what’s out there. Risk (2008) delves into the psychological and sociological reasons why fear is so deeply rooted in modern times, and why the world isn’t really as bad as we’re made to think it is.
How Big Things Get Done (2023) explores what it takes to make large-scale projects work. It tackles tough questions like why so many big projects fail, and what makes the ones that succeed stand out from the rest. With real-life success stories as well as cautionary tales, its lessons can be applied to projects of any size, shape, or form.
Superforecasting (2015) delves into the art and science of predicting the future, highlighting how most individuals, even experts, often falter in their forecasting abilities. Through captivating stories of successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-profile decision-makers, it unveils the secrets behind effective forecasting: a combination of evidence-based thinking, probabilistic reasoning, accountability, and adaptability.