The Next Decade summary

In the past decade, two massive events have occurred that will shape how our near future unfolds: the financial crisis of 2008 and the response of US President George W. Bush to the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001.

The financial crisis of 2008 was the biggest economic catastrophe since the Great Depression. Even so, similar economic downturns that took place since World War II offer some insights into the ways these events can be properly managed.

The United States was at war for only 17 percent of the entire twentieth century. In the twenty-first century, however, it has been at war perpetually. So why did the United States end up in this situation, and what must it do to change it?

Before September 11th, US policy in the Middle East followed the old strategy of balancing power to maintain the status quo.

The US invasion of Iraq had an enormous impact on the balance of power between Iran and Iraq. The withdrawal of American forces has changed this balance yet again.

Iran is a force to be reckoned with, in part due to its relatively large population. Its neighbor Iraq has a population of only 30 million; in Saudi Arabia it’s 27 million. Iran, however, boasts a population of 70 million.

The United States has no intention of leaving Iran completely free to maneuver in the Middle East – at least not without throwing a wrench in the works.

Within a few years, the United States will have to readjust the balance of power in the Middle East, and the only US-friendly regional power for this task in the long run is Turkey.

The region between the eastern Mediterranean and the Hindu Kush is a clear focus of US foreign policy: maintaining the regional balance of power, preserving the flow of oil and eliminating Islamist groups are the main goals the United States is pursuing in the region.

Though the United States was very active in Afghanistan for some time, the country is strategically secondary to neighboring Pakistan in achieving the United States’ goals in the region.

When the Soviet Union fell in the early 1990s, many stopped thinking of Russia as an international player. But looking at Russia’s position in world politics today, it seems these commentators spoke too soon.

When he took office in 2000, Vladimir Putin began emphasizing Russia’s dependence on a strong state. He started restoring Russian power on the international stage by rebuilding the Russian army and flexing the country’s military muscle.

Over the coming years, geopolitical tensions are likely to become more severe within European countries, thus making the future of the European Union uncertain.

Specifically, the European Union faces two problems in the years ahead. The first is the kind of relationship it wants to develop with a resurgent Russia. The second is determining how Germany, the most dynamic of European economies, should be situated within the Union.