The Art Of Thinking Clearly summary

Have you ever thought about why people at casinos throw their dice harder if they want a high number, and gently if they need a low one to win big?

These gamblers are suffering from the illusion of control – i.e., the belief that we can influence things that we in fact cannot control.

When a soloist at a concert puts on a particularly riveting performance, it’s not uncommon for someone in the audience to spontaneously burst into applause. Suddenly everyone else joins the chorus – including you! But why?

This is due to a phenomenon called social proof, which makes us feel like our behavior is correct when it matches other people’s.

Do you consider yourself a good judge of character, whose first impressions of people often prove true later? Many people think this way about themselves, but in fact, it's likely that they are just the victims of confirmation bias.

In actuality, we all suffer from confirmation bias, i.e., the tendency to interpret new information in such a fashion that our previous conclusions remain intact. Indeed, it is so common that it is even said to be “the mother of all misconceptions.”

Have you ever gone to a club with a much more attractive friend, looking to meet someone but instead striking out all evening? Why is this? Quite simply: your friend makes people find you less attractive than you actually are.

As it turns out, we are not very good at making absolute judgments, relying instead on comparisons.

Do you find it difficult to remember the five items on the shopping list you composed only ten minutes ago, yet have no trouble at all remembering the intricate details of the plot of the movie you saw last week?

This is because we need information to form meaningful stories before it makes sense to us; conversely, we are repelled by abstract details.

If something strange was happening right in front of you, like a gorilla running around, you’d notice, right? In fact, you probably wouldn’t if you were focusing on something else.

It turns out that our focus is very narrow, and we miss everything that occurs outside it.

In today’s world we face limitless choices about products and lifestyle. Be it finding the right wine or the best university, you are bombarded with options. For most people it’s difficult or even impossible to manage this cornucopia.

Indeed, a large selection leads to an inability to come to a decision, and we often just give up instead.

How many beautiful, smiling faces do you see plastered on billboards on a daily basis? It’s no mistake: businesses know that we are all susceptible to good looks and charm.

In fact, a single quality – whether beauty, social status, age, etc. – produces in us a positive or negative impression that outshines everything else. This is called the halo effect.

Would you consider yourself to be rational decision maker? Try this exercise, and see: decide right now whether or not you are in favor of genetically modified food.

How did you come to your decision? A truly rational approach would be to separately consider both the advantages and disadvantages of genetically modified foods: first, assess each “pro” in terms of importance, and then multiply each by the probability that those advantages will actually occur. Then, do the same with each “con.”

We think we are better than we actually are and we automatically seek out information that confirms us in our pre-existing beliefs. We also have a preference for the exotic, beautiful people and a small rather than a large selection of things. We notice only a limited amount of the things in front of us, and don’t know how to make absolute judgments. And our decisions are guided by our emotions and by the way that people around us are behaving.

Actionable advice: