Perfectly Confident summary

What are you good at? Maybe you’re an outstanding cook. Or maybe you’re an exceptional driver. Whatever the case may be, one thing’s for sure: you do that activity frequently. Makes sense, right? Think about it – nobody would describe themselves as a good golfer if they didn’t actually golf.

But now think about the reverse. The things you’re not good at are probably the things you don’t do frequently. If you’ve never juggled, you wouldn’t be confident in your ability to juggle – and you’d likely describe yourself as a worse-than-average juggler. This may seem like an obvious point, but it’s important to keep in mind because it’s a major source of underconfidence.

Things would be so much easier if we could see into the future. Since we can’t, we have to make choices based on our beliefs about what will happen. Whether you’re choosing a business plan or buying a new house, every big decision involves you drawing upon a forecast.

The problem? People are generally pretty bad at forecasting. We tend to be too specific in our predictions. To counteract this tendency, try to allow for uncertainty. If you’re planning a wedding, don’t assume that precisely 100 people are going to come. Sure, have a plan in place for 100 guests – but also have backup plans for 80 guests and 120 guests, just in case.

Imagine you're shown a large jar of jelly beans and asked to guess precisely how many beans the jar contains. Do you think you'd guess correctly? Probably not, right? If you were with some friends and they guessed too, they would probably all be wrong as well.

But here’s the thing – while no single person would be exactly right, the average of everyone’s guesses would almost certainly be an accurate approximation of the number of beans. No one person could be overly confident about their guess, but together, the entire crowd might come close to the real answer. This holds true for things far more important than jelly beans. It may seem paradoxical, but a crowd can be smarter than a single expert.

People at the very top of their fields are rarely lacking in self-confidence. Think of global sports superstars like Michael Jordan and Cristiano Ronaldo – they seem larger-than-life, so confident in their abilities that it comes as a surprise when they fail. And this seems like an enviable trait. Who wouldn’t want to possess such supreme confidence?

But be careful about trying to mimic their behaviors. Remember: Usain Bolt doesn’t run fast because he’s bursting with confidence – he’s confident because he can run ridiculously fast. Confidence can impress others, but it has to be backed by something.

Perhaps no area of life is more closely linked with confidence than leadership. A leader without confidence isn’t a leader at all; if you don’t believe in your own ability, you’ll struggle to make decisions and earn the respect of the people you’re leading. So can a leader carefully calibrate her confidence?

The answer lies not in putting forward a false front but in being open to information and aware of what you don’t know. Clarity is essential, both for yourself and your team.