New Cold Wars summary

After the Cold War ended in 1991, the West was confident it had won. It believed democracy was the best political system – and thought Russia and China would embrace its democratic values and join a Western-led global order. The vision was that Russia would become a democracy too and that China, with its booming economy, would integrate so deeply with the West that peace would be inevitable.

Initially, this seemed possible. In his early years, Vladimir Putin appeared to want Russia to integrate with the global community. But beneath this facade, he harbored a deep resentment and a desire for autocratic power reminiscent of the Soviet era. His true ambitions became clear with aggressive actions like the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. These moves showed his determination to restore Russia’s dominance and reject Western democratic norms.

US presidents from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden struggled with how to handle Putin. Clinton sought a cooperative relationship, promoting economic assistance and diplomacy. As Putin grew more belligerent, subsequent administrations failed to impose meaningful consequences. George W. Bush famously misjudged Putin, saying he had “looked into his soul” and found a trustworthy partner. Barack Obama tried a “reset” with Russia but faced renewed aggression. Donald Trump, criticized for his favorable rhetoric toward Putin, lacked a cohesive strategy. Biden now faces the challenge of balancing confrontation with diplomatic engagement.

Meanwhile, the West had different – yet equally flawed – expectations for China. It believed that economic integration would bind China to a peaceful coexistence and that as China’s wealth grew, it would adopt liberal reforms and align with the West. The economic interdependence between the US and China was supposed to prevent conflict.

But this vision has also failed. Under President Xi Jinping, China has taken a more assertive and nationalist stance. Xi’s leadership has seen a tightening grip on domestic power, a crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, and aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea. These actions show that China is willing to challenge the global order to assert its dominance.

Instead of fostering peace, economic entanglement between the US and China has exposed vulnerabilities and increased tensions. Issues like trade imbalances, intellectual property theft, and human rights abuses have strained relations. The COVID-19 pandemic further worsened tensions with mutual accusations and distrust.

In the next section, we’ll dive into how Russia and China have raised the stakes in their confrontations with the West.