Chokepoints summary

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 over fears it might possess nuclear weapons. Those fears turned out to be baseless. But next door in Iran, a genuine nuclear program was underway –⁠ led by a fundamentalist Islamist regime whose president had openly called for Israel to be “wiped off the map.”

Washington made it clear that a nuclear Iran was unacceptable. But given the miserable failure of the Iraq War, military intervention was a no-go. Instead, a small Treasury team set out to craft a different sort of weapon.

In February 2014, Russia stunned the world, initiating the first act of territorial conquest on European soil since World War II. In just days, Russia invaded the peninsula of Crimea on the Black Sea, installed a pro-Russian leader, and staged a sham referendum in which Crimea “voted” overwhelmingly to join Russia.

Faced with this violation of international norms, the US and its allies looked to fight back. Military intervention was off the table, since Russia was a nuclear power. And Iran-style sanctions wouldn’t work, given that Russia was far more deeply entwined with the global economy –⁠ especially Europe –⁠ than Iran had been. Instead, the Obama administration wanted precise sanctions that could inflict maximum damage on Russia while minimizing harm to Europe. The strategy would be shaped by State Department veteran Dan Fried and Treasury’s Daleep Singh.

In April 2019, Washington received terrible news. The United Kingdom, America’s closest ally, had just agreed to let the Chinese tech giant Huawei build its national 5G network.

Officials in the Trump administration were mortified. Huawei was more than just a tech company –⁠ it was a bonafide arm of Chinese intelligence. Because of the backdoors built into its technology, it could potentially be used to disrupt communications, shut down power grids, and monitor military operations. If the world became dependent on Huawei, China could leverage that dependence to impose its will.

On February 4 2022, the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping announced a new strategic partnership between their two nations. Behind closed doors, Xi reportedly asked Putin for a favor: Wait until the Olympics are over to initiate an invasion. 

The Olympics would end on February 20th. That gave the West two weeks to act. Together, the US and the EU set to work on a set of “Day Zero” sanctions that would go into effect at the first sign of an invasion.

Despite having advance warning, the sanctions the US and Europe imposed on Russia were too little, too late. Yes, Russia’s access to high-tech weapons was cut –⁠ but it had no trouble leveling Ukrainian cities and devastating lives with old Soviet weapons and oil profits.

The Biden administration was determined not to repeat that mistake, so it acted swiftly when China later started showing signs of its own escalation. After Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan in 2022, China initiated a series of military exercises that looked uncomfortably like a dress rehearsal for an invasion.