What is the main message of Farsighted?

In Farsighted , we learn that making good decisions requires considering long-term consequences and alternative perspectives.

How long does it take to read Farsighted?

The reading time for Farsighted varies, but you can read the Blinkist summary in just 15 minutes.

Is Farsighted a good book? Is it worth reading?

Farsighted is a thought-provoking book that explores decision making. It's definitely worth a read for those interested in improving their decision-making skills.

Who is the author of Farsighted?

Steven Johnson is the author of Farsighted .

Farsighted Summary of Key Ideas and Review

Name: Farsighted
Rating: 3.9 (106 reviews)
Author: Steven Johnson

Introduction

What’s in it for me? Make better decisions.

Making tough decisions can paralyze even the most pragmatic people. Faced with too many options, and with no idea what the future holds, it often feels best just to ignore the situation. On top of that, humans are full of blind spots and biases, and future outcomes can be too bewilderingly complex to anticipate.

Thankfully, there are plenty of techniques that can help us work around this hard-wired hindrance. They can be applied in everyday situations or even monumental decisions that need a lot of time to process. Depending on your disposition, better decision-making can be as precise as a mathematical model or as simple as mulling it over.

In these blinks you’ll learn

how George Washington fell prey to faulty reasoning;
why President Reagan’s approach to decision-making helps Liberals; and
why mulling things over will never go out of style.

Key idea 1 of 8

We all fall prey to our blind spots while making decisions, even George Washington.

In the summer of 1776, the Revolutionary War in North America was in full swing. The Americans, led by George Washington, sought to break free from the shackles of British rule. But the British refused to let go. As they massed their navy with New York in their sights, Washington was left in a quandary. Although it was clear that an attack was coming, it was less clear how the British would launch it.

This lesson from history demonstrates just how complex decision-making in real-life situations can be.

Washington was faced with what’s known as a full-spectrum decision. That means numerous factors had to be taken into account for the right decision to be made.

In the battle for New York, Washington had a lot to think about. Where were there landing sites for British ships on the New York coast? What effect would the strong currents of the East River have in moving his own troops from New York to Brooklyn?

Washington also had to consider the damage British cannons could do against New York’s fortifications and the potential risk of life for his own soldiers in pitched battle. He even had to consider the internal American politics in the Continental Congress, which demanded that he stand firm against the British.

Needless to say, Washington had a tough time deciding what to do, and eventually, he found himself making the wrong decision. He actually erred in the very first one he made. He shouldn’t even have tried to defend New York at all. Since the superior British outnumbered his forces, it would have been much easier to retreat inland. But this mistake is not unique to Washington – we are often prone to forget our blind spots when making decisions.

There’s a name for this common error in human reasoning. It’s known as loss aversion. Studies repeatedly show it to be a characteristic innate to humans. We prefer to resist losses than to seek gains, even when it’d be better in the long run to do the opposite. Washington, however, was smart enough not to stick it out until his troops were completely crushed. Once his forces began to lose, he quickly signaled the retreat. He was still a born leader, and the Revolutionary War would eventually be won, despite the many difficult decisions along the way.

Key idea 2 of 8

Good decisions arise from considering diverse points of view from a diverse range of people.

As a general rule, governments and corporations function as hierarchies; the bosses make the important decisions. Unfortunately, that’s often not how the best decisions are made. In reality, complex decisions need to be supported by many points of view.

The water department for the Greater Vancouver area is a good example here. Faced with population growth, they needed to expand the freshwater resources available. This called for some complex decision-making. Resource options included using three existing reservoirs, building a pipeline to far-off lakes or drilling well fields alongside a nearby river.

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Key idea 3 of 8

The average human can't predict the future – and experts are even worse at it.

Decision-making would be pretty easy if we already knew what the future holds. If you were aware of where real estate prices were going to skyrocket in twenty years, it would be a no-brainer to buy property there. Unfortunately, humans are dreadful at guessing the future.

The political scientist Philip Tetlock demonstrated this more than 20 years ago in his “forecasting tournaments.” In these, participants competed against others to predict what the future held for subjects like the environment or gender relations. The questions posited looked at long-term political and economic developments – would a member of the European Union leave it within the decade, or would the US experience an economic downturn in the next five years?

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Key idea 4 of 8

Future events depend on unpredictable converging factors, which aren’t always predictable from current trends.

When it comes to envisaging the development of current trends, humans tend to believe that things will just go on as they are indefinitely. Unfortunately, as a rule of thumb, that doesn’t always hold true – chaos and unpredictability cannot be dismissed when anticipating the future.

George Orwell was no different in his assumptive forecasting when writing his famous near-future dystopia, 1984. He began writing the novel in 1944, when Nazi power had taken hold in Europe. He had witnessed the rise of fascism in previous decades, as well, so it made sense that he foresaw the continued trend of dictatorial systems of government. But – thankfully – that didn’t turn out to be the case.

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Key idea 5 of 8

Using red teams assists in planning and prediction, even in covert operations.

As we have seen, predicting the future is no easy task. With that said, there are still techniques that can help in prediction and decision-making. One increasingly popular method used for predicting the future is using red teams.

A red team is a group that is created within an organization. The team acts as though it were the ‘enemy’ when the larger organization is in the process of making strategic decisions. For instance, an army unit might be considering the options open to them for launching an effective attack. Once they’ve formulated their plans, they’ll pass them onto a red team. The red team will then enter fully into the mind of the enemy and map out all the different ways they could counter a potential attack.

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Key idea 6 of 8

Governments use cost-benefit analysis for decision-making, even for environmental protection.

Ronald Reagan’s legacy as a US president is largely defined by his conservative agenda. Just think of his professed desire to cut taxes and government spending, as well as bolster the military. What’s less known, though, are his ideas that found bipartisan support, most notably his advocacy of cost-benefit analysis in decision-making.

In February 1981, Reagan signed an Executive Order. This necessitated a cost-benefit analysis to be conducted for every new regulation under governmental consideration. This analysis required that potential benefits and costs of a putative new regulation be listed. Critically, that remit stretched beyond monetary terms. Proposed measures had to demonstrate the overall benefit. Finally, alternatives to the regulation had to be examined to ensure the best solution was the one being executed.

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Key idea 7 of 8

Linear value modeling supports decision-making, no matter whether you’re a human or a machine.

Sometimes decision-making requires making some tough calls. Fortunately, there are tools that can help. Linear value modeling, a method used in statistics, can assist in complex decision-making. Linear value modeling maps out possible options and weighs them according to the value you’ve given them.

Imagine you're deciding whether or not to get married. Value-based considerations might include finances, the possibility of having children, the value of free time alone and the desire for a life companion.

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Key idea 8 of 8

Mathematical decision-making has its limits, but mulling things over will still get you a long way.

If mathematical decision-making is such a great idea, then you might think that only those who are able to do the sums are capable of making good decisions. But thankfully, that’s not the case. Those who are less mathematically minded can also make great decisions, simply by doing a little ruminating.

If you think about it, making a decision functions much like mathematical analysis. By mulling something over, you’re considering different options available to you over an extended period of time. The key is to allow yourself enough time to do this. That way, you won't forget important variables or overlook an option that might resolve the current set of conflicting advantages and disadvantages.

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