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Name: Success and Luck
Rating: 3.5 (148 reviews)
Author: Robert H. Frank

Robert H. Frank

Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy

3.5 (148 Bewertungen)

21 Min.

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What’s in it for me? A new look at economic fortunes.

Picture the most successful person you can imagine – a billionaire, a CEO, a captain of industry. Now consider: How did they get their success?

Surely, you’d think, through hard work, dedication, and great ideas. Well, maybe, but that’s not the whole story. It’s entirely possible that economists, politicians, and everyday people have been underestimating the role of something else altogether: luck.

In these blinks, we’ll look at the role of luck in determining success, and argue that not just talent or skill, but also good fortune, may in fact be a crucial factor driving today’s economy.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

how a strong tailwind can change a race;
how one ambitious engineer ruined his career; and
why pianos are no longer made locally.

Luck plays a greater role in economic success than we acknowledge.

November, 2007. The author, Robert Frank, is locked in a fierce but friendly tennis match with a colleague. The two players volley back and forth when disaster strikes. Frank falls to the court in a state of acute cardiac arrest.

On a normal day, it would take an ambulance several minutes to arrive at the scene – far too late to offer medical help. But, on this day, one happened to be just around the corner. It was pure luck, and that luck saved Frank’s life.

Of course, these strokes of fortune happen all the time, for both good and ill. Freak accidents, happy coincidences, and other twists of fate shape our lives at every turn. Importantly, they also shape our economic outcomes.

The key message is: Luck plays a greater role in economic success than we acknowledge.

There’s an enduring myth in our society that those who achieve great economic success do so through hard work, dedication, and great ideas. This is meritocracy and it says that those who rise to the top deserve their position, power, and prestige. Meanwhile, those at the bottom also deserve their status because they didn’t try hard enough.

But, there’s a problem with this logic. Sure, successful people usually work hard for their riches, but consider this: for every successful person there are thousands more who are just as talented and ambitious, yet never achieve great fortune. Why? Well, partly, it’s pure chance. At some point, the prosperous person got a lucky break and that helped their merit flourish into rewards.

This luck can come in many forms. For instance, the circumstances you’re born into are completely down to chance, but have a huge impact on your trajectory in life. A person born to wealthy parents in a developed country has a much easier time gaining money and status than an equally talented person born into harder conditions. Even talent itself is down to luck – some people are born with it, while others are given more opportunities to develop it. Either way, if you have it, you’re lucky.

Why is this important?

In our winner-takes-all society, those with resources tend to accumulate more and more while everyone else loses out. If we keep up the myth of meritocracy then the rewards will just keep going to a lucky few at the expense of everyone else.

A magnificent career can depend on a series of lucky breaks.

In the 1940s, sociologist Paul Lazarsfeld conducted an experiment on human credulity. He announced that research showed soldiers from rural areas were much better able to adjust to the rigors of military life than those from city backgrounds. No one was surprised. Obviously, country boys had that unique grit necessary for battle.

But, there was a catch. Lazarsfeld’s research had actually found the exact opposite: urban soldiers were better. Still, people had no trouble believing the fake results because they’d already been led to imagine the false narrative.

A little luck can compound into an unbeatable advantage.

Imagine it’s the eighteenth century and you want to buy a piano. You’d probably go to the nearest manufacturer. Why? Well, pianos are big and cumbersome. Moving one any distance would be difficult, so you stay local. As a result, the economy grows to support many small piano makers, each covering a particular area.

Enter trains, cars, and shipping containers, and now, local sellers must compete with piano makers all over the world. People only buy from the best, so a few outstanding companies soak up all the business and the rest go bankrupt. It’s a classic example of winner-takes-all.

People have trouble seeing where luck has been on their side.

Here’s a fun experiment: ask any driver how they rate their driving ability. Chances are, they’ll mark themselves quite highly. In fact, 90 percent of drivers report that their skills on the road are above average.

Obviously, this is statistically impossible. Mathematically speaking, at least half of all people must be below average. That’s just how averages work. Yet, this self-congratulatory pattern emerges again and again. Most teachers think they’re above average teachers and most students assume they’re above average pupils.

To keep our society lucky, we must spread the rewards of good fortune.

Meet Birkhaman Rai. Birkhaman lives in the rural outskirts of Nepal. He’s friendly, smart, and full of ingenuity. On any given day he can cook an elaborate meal, repair complex equipment, or successfully bargain with local merchants.

Despite his ample skill, Birkhaman will never make more than the average Nepalese income of $1,500 a year. Yet, if he’d been born in a rich, developed nation like the United States, he would likely reap much higher financial rewards as a celebrated chef, mechanical engineer, or Wall Street powerbroker.

A consumption tax can moderate spending and fund collective goods.

How much do you think it costs to throw a special, memorable wedding celebration? The truth is, it all depends on context.

In 1980, the average American wedding cost $11,000. In 2014, a typical wedding clocked in at $30,000. In Manhattan, that figure is more than $76,000, while in a rural village somewhere like Appalachia, it’s probably much, much less.

A little humility and a lot of collaboration are crucial to getting ahead.

Scott Forstall had all the right skills for a magnificent career. As Apple’s senior vice president he was noted for creating the iOS operating system that helped make the iPhone and iPad must-have tech items. Many assumed he would be the company’s next CEO. But, in 2012 he was fired.

The problem was that Forstall was ambitious and arrogant. According to colleagues, he only looked after himself. He took sole credit when major collaborative projects succeeded and deflected blame onto others when projects failed.

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Worum geht es in Success and Luck?

Success and Luck (2016) presents an unconventional look at the role chance plays in our economy. This manifesto argues that a little luck matters a lot more than we think and that ignoring this reality is what keeps us from thriving.

Wer Success and Luck lesen sollte

(Aspiring) business leaders
Government officials
People interested in the irrationality of human behavior

Über den Autor

Robert Frank is a world-renowned economist and the Goldwin Smith Professor of Economics at Cornell University. He regularly writes the “Economic View” column for the New York Times and has authored many books including The Economic Naturalist, The Winner-Take-All Society, and Under the Influence.

Kategorien mit Success and Luck

Economics

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