Not the End of the World summary

What does it mean to be afraid of the future? 

The author knows firsthand the paralyzing effects of climate anxiety. As an environmental science student, she internalized a narrative of inexorable decline on the planet. Every lecture seemed to be yet another reminder of ecological catastrophe. She became despondent and considered leaving the field altogether. 

All that changed when the author discovered the work of Swedish statistician and physician Hans Rosling. Rosling’s work upended many popular assumptions about global development. On metric after metric, from the number of people living in poverty to the number of girls receiving education, the statistics showed an overall trajectory in global development that is remarkably positive.

Take a moment to imagine a world where clean water is a luxury. Imagine knowing that half of your children will most likely die before reaching adulthood. Imagine a world where living past 40 makes you an elder. For most people, for most of human history, this was the norm. 

In a shockingly brief period, global fortunes have changed course. In the last century alone, thanks to medical advances, child mortality plummeted 90 percent. Access to electricity went from a rare privilege to near-universal. Extreme poverty has rapidly declined too – from over 75 percent of all people in 1820, to under 10 percent now. And for the first time in history, humanity now produces enough food to feed everyone on earth. 

The point? Transformative change isn’t just a possibility – it’s an undeniable reality. Daily headlines provide a distorted picture. To see the bigger trends, you need to zoom out beyond the day-to-day and take in the long view. And the way you do that is with data. 

For the author, applying this approach to the environment has yielded a clear picture. While substantial work remains, humanity has made significant progress. Take renewable energy, for instance – twenty years ago, almost no one thought wind or solar stood a chance against fossil fuels. They were simply too expensive, it was thought. Today, renewables are the cheapest form of new electricity across most major markets. 

If we’re to build on our current momentum, it’s imperative that we develop a new mindset – a mindset of urgent optimism. Narratives of doom typically backfire. While such fear-mongering may have positive intentions, scaring people typically leads to paralysis rather than action. Instead, we should try to inspire hope – pragmatic, realistic hope – that’s grounded in an understanding, both of what is working and where we still need to improve.