Kategorien entdecken

Das sind die Blinks zu

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Von Nassim Nicholas Taleb
15 Minuten
Audio-Version verfügbar
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable von Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan (2010) offers insights into perceived randomness and the limitations we face in making predictions. Our over-reliance on methods that appeal to our intuition at the expense of accuracy, our basic inability to understand and define randomness, and even our biology itself all contribute to poor decision making, and sometimes to “Black Swans” – events thought to be impossible that redefine our understanding of the world.

  • Anyone whose job involves analyzing charts and trends
  • Anyone interested in how they can minimize their exposure to risk
  • Anyone interested in epistemology

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is among the more prolific contemporary economists and thinkers, having written a number of critically acclaimed works such as Fooled by Randomness, and his numerous essays have been published in a number of magazines and journals. Taleb is a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute.

Kennst du schon Blinkist Premium?

Mit Blinkist Premium erhältst du Zugang zu dem Wichtigsten aus mehr als 3.000 Sachbuch-Bestsellern. Das Probeabo ist 100% kostenlos.

Premium kostenlos testen

Was ist Blinkist?

Blinkist ist eine App, die die großen Ideen der besten Sachbücher in einprägsame Kurztexte verpackt und erklärt. Die Inhalte der über 3.000 Titel starken Bibliothek reichen von Sachbuch-Klassikern, über populäre Ratgeber bis hin zu diskutierten Neuerscheinungen. Basierend auf wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen wird jeder Titel von speziell geschulten Autoren aufbereitet und dem Nutzer als Kurztext und Audiotitel zur Verfügung gestellt.

Discover
3.000+ top
nonfiction titles

Get unlimited access to the most important ideas in business, investing, marketing, psychology, politics, and more. Stay ahead of the curve with recommended reading lists curated by experts.

Entdecke die Kernaussagen zu diesem Titel:
Entdecke die Kernaussagen zu diesem Titel:
Entdecke die Kernaussagen zu diesem Titel:

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Von Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Lesedauer: 15 Minuten
  • Verfügbar in Text & Audio
  • 9 Kernaussagen
Jetzt kostenloses Probeabo starten Jetzt lesen oder anhören
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable von Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Worum geht's

The Black Swan (2010) offers insights into perceived randomness and the limitations we face in making predictions. Our over-reliance on methods that appeal to our intuition at the expense of accuracy, our basic inability to understand and define randomness, and even our biology itself all contribute to poor decision making, and sometimes to “Black Swans” – events thought to be impossible that redefine our understanding of the world.

Kernaussage 1 von 9

“Black Swans” are events thought to lie outside the realm of possibility, and yet happen anyway.

As human beings, we are particularly good at turning all of the stimuli from our environment into meaningful information. This is a talent that has allowed us to create the scientific method, philosophize about the nature of being and invent complex mathematical models.

But just because we’re able to reflect on and order the world around us doesn’t necessarily mean we’re very good at it.

For one thing, we’re inclined to be narrow-minded in our beliefs about the world. Once we have an idea about how the world functions, we tend to cling to it.

But because human knowledge is constantly growing and evolving, this dogmatic approach makes no sense. Just two-hundred years ago, for example, doctors and scientists were supremely confident in their knowledge of medicine, yet today their confidence seems ludicrous: just imagine going to your doctor complaining of a common cold, and being given a prescription for snakes and leeches!

Being dogmatic about our beliefs makes us blind to those concepts that fall outside the paradigms we’ve already accepted as true. How, for example, is it possible to understand medicine if you’re not aware that germs exist? You might come up with a sensible explanation for illness but it will be flawed by a lack of crucial information.

This kind of dogmatic thinking can result in huge surprises. We’re sometimes surprised by events not because they’re random, but because our outlook is too narrow. Such surprises are known as “Black Swans,” and they can prompt us to fundamentally reconsider our worldview:

Before anyone had ever seen a black swan, people assumed that all swans were white. Because of this, all their depictions and imaginations of the swan were white, meaning that white was an essential part of “swanness.” So, when they discovered their first black swan, this fundamentally transformed their understanding of what a swan could be.

As you’ll see, Black Swans can be as trivial as learning that not all swans are white, or as life-changing as losing everything because of a stock market crash.

Mit Premium freischalten Jetzt lesen oder anhören

Inhalt

Mit Premium freischalten Jetzt lesen oder anhören

Bringe mehr Wissen in deinen Alltag!

Sichere dir jetzt Zugang zu den Kernaussagen der besten Sachbücher – praktisch in Text & Audio in nur 15 Minuten pro Titel.
Created with Sketch.