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Zusammenfassung von No Ordinary Disruption

Name: No Ordinary Disruption
Rating: 3.9 (27 reviews)
Author: Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel

Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel

The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

3.9 (27 Bewertungen)

19 Min.

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Success Capitalism & The Free Market

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No Ordinary Disruption
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What’s in it for me? Get ahead of the four global trends transforming the world today.

The futurist Ray Kurzweil has suggested that the first human being who will live to 1,000 has already been born. Even if this prediction is still a longshot, advances in medical technology and better living standards are making it easier for people all over the world to live longer.

Needless to say, this growing demographic poses serious challenges to the world economy, such as how exactly countries and markets will be able to support a new generation of centenarians.

This dilemma is just one of four major global trends – or disruptions – that are transforming the world today. What are the others? These blinks will show you.

In these blinks, you’ll also learn

why money is getting more and more expensive;
why you might not find your favorite gum in China; and
how Netflix is blurring the boundaries of the media business.

A series of globally disruptive forces are fundamentally changing the economic landscape.

The quarter-century before the crash of 2008 was a time of unparalleled economic development. Interest rates were low; natural resources cheap; jobs plentiful and workers adequately employed.

But that phase is now over. Today, we’re entering a new phase, marked by four globally disruptive trends.

These trends are: a shifting focal point of economic activity and dynamism; an acceleration in technology’s scope, scale and economic impact; an aging global population; and a greater degree of connection through trade, capital information and people.

While these trends certainly present major challenges, they’ve also been the driving force behind pulling some one billion people worldwide out of poverty since 1990.

In short, increased connectivity and advances in technology have spurred economic growth. The shifting locus of economic activity as a result has meant more development in ever more remote regions, further ameliorating the burden of poverty in these areas.

This new world is thus going to be wealthier and more urban, with higher skill levels and better health than previous generations.

These four global trends interact in complicated ways, however, which makes predicting future conditions increasingly difficult. Not just that, but such forecasts are often based on past experiences and outmoded ways of thinking.

To succeed in this new world, we need to reformulate our prior notions about how the economy works.

For instance, supply and demand traditionally says that when demand for financing is high, capital becomes more expensive; and then, demand will abate. But now the opposite is true. Emerging markets the world over are rapidly building capital-intensive infrastructure and spurring demand, even though the cost of financing continues to rise.

But this is just one example of how old ways of thinking aren’t keeping up with changing conditions. Let’s take a closer look at today’s four disruptive forces.

Increasing urbanization across the globe will transform the world’s economic landscape.

Have you ever heard of Hsinchu? Few people have, yet this northern Taiwanese city is home to many of the world’s largest and most advanced electronics companies.

In fact, about half of global growth leading up to 2025 will originate in some 440 medium-sized cities in emerging markets – many largely unknown.

Technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, and companies need to keep up – or fail.

Technology is evolving faster and faster. In the 1990s, it took a team of scientists 13 years and $3 billion to sequence the human genome; today, one machine and $1,000 can do the job in a few hours.

It’s a fact that digitization and mobile internet access is fueling today’s technological revolution.

The world is getting older while the workforce is shrinking, forcing the need for large-scale changes.

Would you want to live to be 100 years old? Given the rapid pace of technological development, you just might. Yet a world with a large elderly demographic will present many new challenges.

In 2013, approximately 60 percent of the global population lived in countries with fertility rates that were below the replacement rate – the rate that maintains a stable population, about 2.1 births per woman in developed nations, and 2.5 births in developing countries.

Global interconnectivity is rewiring the world economy, giving small companies a global reach.

You might have studied abroad, or perhaps have close friends who live in another country. At the very least, you certainly have purchased a product that was made abroad. All these things are solid proof that the world is growing more connected every day.

In fact, trade between countries and continents is rising. For instance, while China and Africa booked $9 billion in trade activity in 2000, by 2012 this number had risen to $211 billion. But it’s not just trade that’s become more global; people, finance and data, too, are crossing borders.

Success in the new economy means finding a way to attract a broadening consumer class.

It’s clear the world is changing. Thriving in the new global economy means living in reality, not the faded glory of the past. One thing that needs to be accounted for is the heterogeneity of the new global consumer class, which makes segmentation and localization more essential than ever.

In 1990, for instance, 43 percent of the developing world’s population lived in extreme poverty. Today 700 million fewer people live in poverty, and the consumer class has grown by 1.2 billion. These people are now online and purchasing items – yet don’t get distracted by the group’s sheer size.

Companies as well as governments have to see clearly to take advantage of new opportunities.

So you’ve seen how world markets are being shaken up, and that as a result, global businesses can run into trouble. But this shouldn’t scare you out of the game.

However, to stay on track and succeed it’s important to be clear about the risks and opportunities.

Access to cash continues to be a challenge, so businesses need to get creative about financing.

Before 2008 when world markets were more stable, it was possible to make longer-term predictions. Unfortunately that’s no longer an option.

The demand for cash today is on the rise. By 2030, the world will need to spend some $57 trillion to $67 trillion on improving infrastructure such as roads, buildings, telecommunications networks, ports and water systems. However, it’s still unclear whether this money will even be available.

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Worum geht es in No Ordinary Disruption?

No Ordinary Disruption (2015) details four forces that are changing the world’s markets in profound ways. These blinks show you how the business world, the jobs that support it and the market that shapes it are transforming and what companies, governments and individuals need to do to not only survive but succeed in this new world order.

Bestes Zitat aus No Ordinary Disruption

Leaders will have to resist the temptation to focus on the hazards of the period ahead instead of the opportunities it presents.

—Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel

Wer No Ordinary Disruption lesen sollte

CEOs, marketing executives and students of business
Anyone interested in economic development and global finance

Über den Autor

Richard Dobbs researches global economic patterns at McKinsey. He has taught at the University of Oxford and at several other universities; No Ordinary Disruption is his second bestselling book.

The director of the McKinsey Global Institute, James Manyika has advised a number of leading technology companies in Silicon Valley. He is also the vice chairman of the President’s Global Development Council, appointed by US President Barack Obama.

Jonathan Woetzel cofounded McKinsey’s operations in China, where he lives. He is a lecturer at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, and has written four books on China.

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