2030 Buchzusammenfassung - das Wichtigste aus 2030

Einleitung anhören

00:00

Zusammenfassung von 2030

Name: 2030
Rating: 4.2 (773 reviews)
Author: Mauro F. Guillén

Mauro F. Guillén

How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything

4.2 (773 Bewertungen)

27 Min.

Themen

Klimawandel Digitale Transformation Wandel & Evolution Kultur Kryptowährungen

Inhaltsübersicht

2030
in 8 Kernaussagen verstehen

Audio & Text in der Blinkist App

Kernaussage 1 von 8

What’s in it for me? A window onto the world’s next decade.

What does the future hold? In these uncertain, turbulent times, it’s a more pressing question than ever before.

Arriving at a single, certain answer is, of course, impossible – but we can make informed predictions. Which is where these blinks come in. Extrapolating from a range of current trends, they offer a possible preview of the changes we can expect to see in the coming decade, and paint a picture of the kind of world we’re likely to live in come 2030.

So, what is life like in 2030? In a word: different. Over the next ten years, rising temperatures will threaten our predominantly urban, coastal way of life. A low birth rate combined with higher life expectancy will make baby boomers into a power-house demographic. And some national economies will stagnate while others will unexpectedly thrive.

To anticipate the challenges and embrace the opportunities the next decade will bring, you’ll need to be informed about what the future holds.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

which new technologies are offering hope in the fight against climate change and poverty;
why women can expect more financial gains than men in the next ten years; and
how our society is about to pivot to a collaborative mode of consumption.

The decreasing birth rate will forever change human demographics.

In 1968, professors Paul and Anne Ehrlich released the provocatively titled book Population Bomb. The Ehrlichs argued that if the human race kept procreating at its current rate, it was only a matter of time before humans would overrun the planet.

Fast-forward more than 50 years, and many are still alarmed by the prospect of overpopulation. But rather than a baby boom, our biggest worry come 2030 might be a baby drought.

The key message is: The decreasing birth rate will forever change human demographics.

Since the 1970s, women in the US have had, on average, fewer than two children each. In other words, fewer than necessary to replace the current generation.

What’s wrong with that? A dwindling population might be good news for the planet’s overtaxed resources. But our current economic system relies on the next generation to care for the elderly and foot the bill for pensions through their taxes. Now, all over the world, from Brazil to Japan, governments are questioning who, exactly, will support their aging populations in the coming decades.

Why is the birth rate declining? Well, these days women are more active in the workforce. So they’re likely to defer starting a family until they’re established in their chosen field. Fertility declines with age, so women who start their families later in life tend to have fewer children.

We’re also having less sex. A study by the Archives of Sexual Behavior found that in the 2010s Americans had sex, on average, nine times less per year than they did in the 1990s. Why? It’s partly because technology has brought a host of enjoyable distractions into our homes – sex is just one pastime among many we can indulge in on a rainy night.

Not every country’s birth rate is on the decline. The African continent has a current population of 1.3 billion. That’s projected to rise to 2 billion by 2038 and 3 billion by 2061, with the boom concentrated in the sub-Saharan region.

The African baby boom will have two key flow-on effects. First, sub-Saharan Africa relies on imported food. As its population grows, the markets for feeding and developing agriculture in the region will grow, too, potentially becoming a trillion-dollar sector, according to the World Bank.

Second, many Western nations will need to rethink their hardline stances on immigration. They may soon be dependent on immigrant workers from the Global South to fund and care for their swelling ranks of retirees.

Aging consumers will have more spending power than ever before.

The Netherlands, 1891: Frederick and Gerard Phillips, a father and son team, cofound the electronics company Phillips. Thanks to a series of innovative inventions – amongst them, tungsten filament light bulbs, the electric razor, the VCR, and the CD – Phillips stays relevant and profitable through most of the twentieth century. This changes in the 1990s, when Philips is suddenly undercut by cheaper, Asian-manufactured electronics. In the 2000s, the ailing company flirts with bankruptcy.

Phillips might have folded entirely if Frans van Houten hadn’t taken the helm in 2011. He shifted Philips’s focus to health-care technology, like scanners and imagers. Thanks in part to the world’s aging population, these products are now in high demand – and that demand will likely continue to grow.

By 2030, the middle classes will have shifted dramatically.

Ask any economist and she’ll tell you: the middle classes are the engine of the economy. Neither affluent nor impoverished, they are steady – if cautious – consumers. And it’s their steady spending that keeps the economic wheels spinning.

And yet, in Europe and America, the middle classes, once robust, are stagnating. Many traditional middle-class jobs have been automated or outsourced.

Women will hold the purse strings in 2030.

In 2008, the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers signaled the start of a global recession. But what if it had been Lehman Sisters instead of Lehman Brothers? Would the bank have gone under? Perhaps not. A study of male and female brokers at an investment bank showed that the female brokers were more cautious, while the men took more risks.

Why is that important? Well, come 2030, women will hold more than half the world’s wealth for the first time. And global spending habits will change as a result. Spending will likely increase in sectors such as education, health care, and insurance, where women have typically been bigger spenders than men. In investing, women will lead the trend for “safer” investments, like indexed stock funds.

To weather the coming climate crisis, city living needs to transform.

Paris, New York, Delhi, Shanghai, London: The world’s major metropolises are hotbeds of art, culture, and finance – as well as inequality, pollution, and, well, actual heat. It’s true. Cities are warming at faster rates than rural areas, thanks to their high concentrations of concrete and asphalt. These materials trap heat, which in turn increases global warming. They’re also hubs for consumption, construction, and traffic. In fact, the globe’s cities are responsible for 75 percent of energy use and 80 percent of carbon emissions.

Climate change will undoubtedly be felt more keenly in cities. Cities account for only one percent of the world’s land, yet 55 percent of the world’s population lives in them. Moreover, 75 percent of cities are on or near a coast, making them vulnerable to rising sea levels. Asian mega-metropolises like Jakarta and Bangkok are especially at risk. Elsewhere, Venice, New Orleans, and Miami face immediate threat. So what can cities do to mitigate the coming climate crisis?

Prepare for rapid technological change in the coming decade.

Remember the cartoon series The Jetsons? It was first released in 1962, but is set in the year 2062, where it followed the adventures of a futuristic family, the Jetsons. Father and husband George zipped off to work every day in a flying car, while his wife, Jane, delegated household chores to the robot housekeeper.

By the year 2030, we might not be commuting in flying cars – but we can expect lots of exciting technological developments in the next ten years.

Get used to sharing instead of owning.

If you’ve ever observed kindergartners playing with buckets and spades in the sandpit, you’ll know it’s true: sharing doesn’t always come naturally. But by 2030, we’d better have gotten used to it. The sharing economy is on the rise. Soon, we’re all going to own less and share more.

Imagine having a home on every continent, or a car in every city you visit. The only catch is, they’re not yours. Or not just yours. You’re one of many people who pays a fee to access them. Does that bother you? If the answer is no, you could well be a millennial or a Gen Zer. Statistics show that you value lifestyle over property, and are far more likely than your parents to see the value in paying a low price to use a product rather than paying a high price to own a product.

In the coming decade, we’ll tap cryptocurrency’s full potential.

Late in the thirteenth century, the intrepid Italian explorer Marco Polo ventured to China. He was the first European to set foot there. He saw lots of amazing things that hadn’t yet arrived in Europe, like gunpowder and porcelain. But the thing that really blew his mind? Paper money. The explorer observed it being exchanged with great solemnity, “as if it were pure gold or silver.”

These days, we’re comfortable using forms of money that are increasingly abstracted from the value they represent – from the paper currency that so impressed Marco Polo to stocks and bonds. And the next potential revolution in currency is already well underway. By 2030 cryptocurrencies may have moved from the fringe to the mainstream.

Du möchtest die gesamte Zusammenfassung von 2030 sehen?

Kernaussagen in 2030

Mehr Wissen in weniger Zeit

Sachbücher auf den Punkt gebracht

Kernaussagen aus Sachbüchern in ca. 15 Minuten pro Titel lesen & anhören mit den „Blinks”

Zeitsparende Empfehlungen

Titel, die dein Leben bereichern, passend zu deinen Interessen und Zielen

Podcasts in Kurzform ^Neu

Kernaussagen wichtiger Podcasts im Kurzformat mit den neuen „Shortcasts”

Worum geht es in 2030?

2030 (2020) isn’t a crystal ball – but it might be the next best thing. Drawing on current sociological trends, demographic trajectories, and technological advancements, it paints a convincing picture of the global changes we can expect to see and experience in the coming decade.

Wer 2030 lesen sollte

Tech workers and marketing professionals keen to stay ahead of the curve
Eco-warriors looking for solutions to the climate crisis
Anyone curious to see what the future might hold

Über den Autor

Mauro F. Guillén is a trained sociologist and acknowledged expert in global market trends. Guillén currently holds the Zandman Professorship in International Management at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and his online courses have reached over 100,000 participants around the world.

Kategorien mit 2030

Gesellschaft & Kultur Technologie & Zukunft Wirtschaft Natur & Umwelt

Ähnlich wie 2030

Grand Transitions

Vaclav Smil

How the Modern World Was Made

Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them

16 min

3.9

21 Lessons for the 21st Century

Yuval Noah Harari

Future proof yourself against the 21st Century

How Curiosity and Creativity are Your Superpowers in the Digital Economy

23 min

4.5

COVID-19: The Great Reset

Klaus Schwab and Thierry Malleret

A vision for what the post-Covid world could look like

How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World

29 min

4.4

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

Intuition or deliberation? Where you can (and can't) trust your brain

28 min

4.5

The Patient Will See You Now

Eric Topol

The Future of Medicine is in Your Hands

15 min

4.1

AI 2041

Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan

Ten Visions for Our Future

30 min

4.2

The Robots Are Coming!

Andrés Oppenheimer

The Future of Jobs in the Age of Automation

Quit Your Day Job, Start Your Own Business, and Live Happily Ever After

366 Meditations on Power, Seduction, Mastery, Strategy, and Human Nature

30 min

4.5

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

Stephen R. Covey

Powerful Lessons in Personal Change

How the Quantum Computer Revolution Will Change Everything

What to Say to Get Your Way

17 min

4.6

Capital in the Twenty-First Century

Thomas Piketty

Groundbreaking Research That Unravels Economic Disparity in Our World Today

The Fall of Big Data and the Rise of the Blockchain Economy

One of the most important philosophical texts ever written

21 min

4.5

The Power of Discipline

Daniel Walter

How to Use Self Control and Mental Toughness to Achieve Your Goals

14 min

4.4

Rewired

Eric Lamarre & Kate Smaje & Rodney Zemmel

The McKinsey Guide to Outcompeting in the Age of Digital and AI

A Brief History of Humankind

28 min

4.4

A Short History of Nearly Everything

Bill Bryson

A journey into the most intriguing and intractable questions that science seeks to answer

38 min

4.5

The Fine Art Of Small Talk

Debra Fine

How To Start a Conversation, Keep It Going, Build Networking Skills – and Leave a Positive Impression!

Architects of Intelligence

Martin Ford

The truth about AI from the people building it

25 min

4.3

The Alignment Problem

Brian Christian

Machine Learning and Human Values

8 min

3.2

7 Strategies for Wealth & Happiness

Jim Rohn

Power Ideas from America's Foremost Business Philosopher

A Historical Novel on the Irrationality of Human Behavior in War

Four Simple Choices to Scale Your Impact

The Science of Creating Heaven on Earth

What the Rich Teach Their Kids about Money – That the Poor and the Middle Class Do Not!

Train Your Subconscious to Grow Mentally and Materially

10 min

4.0

Happy Mind, Happy Life

Rangan Chatterjee

The New Science of Mental Well-Being

Classic military strategy for politics, business, and everyday life

The Art of Split-Second Persuasion

17 min

4.4

Marketing 5.0

Philip Kotler & Hermawan Kartajaya & Iwan Setiawan

Technology for Humanity

20 min

4.3

Do Breathe

Michael Townsend Williams

Calm Your Mind. Find Focus. Get Stuff Done.

A Beginner's Guide to the Basics of Investing and Business

22 min

4.1

Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984)

George Orwell

A Dystopian Classic on the Dangers of Totalitarianism

22 min

4.8

Lives of the Stoics

Ryan Holiday and Stephen Hanselman

The Art of Living from Zeno to Marcus Aurelius

28 min

4.4

What To Do When Machines Do Everything

Malcolm Frank

How To Get Ahead In A World Of AI, Algorithms, Bots and Big Data

The Present and Future of the World

19 min

3.9

The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari

Robin Sharma

A guide to using ancient practices to improve your quality of life and achieve your goals

Blockchains, Digital Assets, Smart Contracts, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations

A Mindful Approach to Nonviolent Communication

32 min

4.6

Guns, Germs and Steel

Jared Diamond

The Fates Of Human Societies

Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control

How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

The Secret to Love That Lasts

20 min

4.5

Uncle Tom's Cabin

Harriet Beecher Stowe

The Problem of Slavery and Its Treatment of Human Beings

20 min

4.6

❤️ für Blinkist️️️

Ines S.

Ich bin begeistert. Ich liebe Bücher aber durch zwei kleine Kinder komme ich einfach nicht zum Lesen. Und ja, viele Bücher haben viel bla bla und die Quintessenz ist eigentlich ein Bruchteil.

Genau dafür ist Blinkist total genial! Es wird auf das Wesentliche reduziert, die Blinks sind gut verständlich, gut zusammengefasst und auch hörbar! Das ist super. 80 Euro für ein ganzes Jahr klingt viel, aber dafür unbegrenzt Zugriff auf 3000 Bücher. Und dieses Wissen und die Zeitersparnis ist unbezahlbar.

Ekaterina S.

Extrem empfehlenswert. Statt sinnlos im Facebook zu scrollen höre ich jetzt täglich zwischen 3-4 "Bücher". Bei manchen wird schnelle klar, dass der Kauf unnötig ist, da schon das wichtigste zusammen gefasst wurde..bei anderen macht es Lust doch das Buch selbständig zu lesen. Wirklich toll

Nils S.

Einer der besten, bequemsten und sinnvollsten Apps die auf ein Handy gehören. Jeden morgen 15-20 Minuten für die eigene Weiterbildung/Entwicklung oder Wissen.

Julia P.

Viele tolle Bücher, auf deren Kernaussagen reduziert- präzise und ansprechend zusammengefasst. Endlich habe ich das Gefühl, Zeit für Bücher zu finden, für die ich sonst keine Zeit habe.