The Optimism Bias summary

Let’s start with a quick (albeit macabre) question: What’s the likelihood of your getting cancer one day? If you predicted the probability to be lower than 33 percent – the actual statistical probability of getting cancer – then you’re in good company. Like most of us, you’re an optimist.

In fact, according to a study by Yale psychologist David Armor, about 80 percent of people have what is called an optimism bias, that is, the tendency to look into our future optimistically rather than realistically. This bias causes people to overestimate the likelihood of experiencing positive events, such as a job promotion, and underestimate the likelihood of experiencing negative events, like a car accident.

The workings of the brain have long been a mystery. However, with the advent of fMRI scanners – functional magnetic resonance imaging machines that measure activity in various regions of the brain – we’ve begun to unravel that mystery by learning how the brain works.

These scanners have also helped us understand the optimism bias.

When Magic Johnson and the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA championship in 1987, their coach, Pat Riley, was asked if they would repeat their success next year. Riley blew everyone away with this straightforward answer: “I guarantee it.”

And indeed, not daring to disappoint their fans, the Lakers went on to win the 1988 championship as well.

It’s tempting to try to avoid uncomfortable or dreadful situations, like visiting the dentist. However, putting off these situations is simply counterproductive.

In part, this is because those feelings of anticipation and dread are sometimes greater than the feelings experienced during the actual event.

When making choices, both large and small, in our modern world, we have more options than our parents and grandparents had. If it weren’t for the optimism bias, this overwhelming number of options would drive us mad.

Why? Because the optimism bias makes us confident about the choices we make.

On June 22, 1941, Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union with a force of 4.5 million troops. The Soviet army was caught unawares, despite the fact that the Premier of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, had been repeatedly warned by Soviet spies and had even been told the exact date of the planned invasion.

However, Stalin’s brain acted like most brains do: it ignored the bad news.

As you’ve learned, optimism has a host of benefits, but it can also come with disastrous consequences. As with many things in life, moderation is a crucial part of optimistic thinking as well.

Moderate optimists (as opposed to die-hard optimists) make sensible decisions in life. We can see this demonstrated in a study conducted by economists Manju Puri and David Robinson which measured the relationship between optimism and life choices.