Success and Luck summary

In the 1940s, sociologist Paul Lazarsfeld conducted an experiment on human credulity. He announced that research showed soldiers from rural areas were much better able to adjust to the rigors of military life than those from city backgrounds. No one was surprised. Obviously, country boys had that unique grit necessary for battle.

But, there was a catch. Lazarsfeld’s research had actually found the exact opposite: urban soldiers were better. Still, people had no trouble believing the fake results because they’d already been led to imagine the false narrative.

Imagine it’s the eighteenth century and you want to buy a piano. You’d probably go to the nearest manufacturer. Why? Well, pianos are big and cumbersome. Moving one any distance would be difficult, so you stay local. As a result, the economy grows to support many small piano makers, each covering a particular area.

Enter trains, cars, and shipping containers, and now, local sellers must compete with piano makers all over the world. People only buy from the best, so a few outstanding companies soak up all the business and the rest go bankrupt. It’s a classic example of winner-takes-all.

Here’s a fun experiment: ask any driver how they rate their driving ability. Chances are, they’ll mark themselves quite highly. In fact, 90 percent of drivers report that their skills on the road are above average.

Obviously, this is statistically impossible. Mathematically speaking, at least half of all people must be below average. That’s just how averages work. Yet, this self-congratulatory pattern emerges again and again. Most teachers think they’re above average teachers and most students assume they’re above average pupils.

Meet Birkhaman Rai. Birkhaman lives in the rural outskirts of Nepal. He’s friendly, smart, and full of ingenuity. On any given day he can cook an elaborate meal, repair complex equipment, or successfully bargain with local merchants. 

Despite his ample skill, Birkhaman will never make more than the average Nepalese income of $1,500 a year. Yet, if he’d been born in a rich, developed nation like the United States, he would likely reap much higher financial rewards as a celebrated chef, mechanical engineer, or Wall Street powerbroker.

How much do you think it costs to throw a special, memorable wedding celebration? The truth is, it all depends on context. 

In 1980, the average American wedding cost $11,000. In 2014, a typical wedding clocked in at $30,000. In Manhattan, that figure is more than $76,000, while in a rural village somewhere like Appalachia, it’s probably much, much less. 

Scott Forstall had all the right skills for a magnificent career. As Apple’s senior vice president he was noted for creating the iOS operating system that helped make the iPhone and iPad must-have tech items. Many assumed he would be the company’s next CEO. But, in 2012 he was fired.

The problem was that Forstall was ambitious and arrogant. According to colleagues, he only looked after himself. He took sole credit when major collaborative projects succeeded and deflected blame onto others when projects failed.