Decisions about Decisions summary

All big decisions affect your life. So, with your future at stake, how can you tackle them? The answer lies in a process called opting, which is at the heart of every important decision you face.

Opting is more than just choosing between A and B. It’s reducing major decisions into smaller, more manageable chunks. When you pick something, you often do so from a state of equipoise – remember that word if you want to impress your friends! Equipoise refers to the state of genuine uncertainty between two or more options. Opting sidesteps this uncertainty by allowing you to make smaller choices that can lead to a bigger decision when the stakes are high and outcomes decide your long-term satisfaction and purpose.

With the internet, you have almost every bit of knowledge at your fingertips. But do you always want to know? If you’re like most people, your brain is constantly at odds between seeking and avoiding information. At the heart of this data dilemma is a simple yet profound question: “Does this knowledge make me happy or serve a purpose?” You see, people are naturally drawn to knowledge that has either instrumental value (data that helps us achieve our goals) or hedonic value (information that makes us feel good). However, when it comes to knowledge that may trigger negative emotions or doesn’t appear to be directly useful, an urge to avoid kicks in.

Consider a genetic medical test. It can provide vital health information, but many might avoid it due to fear of bad news. This avoidance isn’t just about the fear of what the information might reveal; it’s also tied to cognitive biases. Present bias, for example, can lead us to prefer immediate pleasure over long-term gains – pushing us into a kind of strategic ignorance, especially in situations where knowing could lead to changes in behavior we’re not ready for.

Imagine you’re at a family dinner. The conversation turns to the hot-button topic of climate change. Opinions vary. Environmentalist Uncle Joe is alarmed by a recent report about rising sea levels. Meanwhile, Aunt Sarah, a skeptic, rejects Joe’s concerns by citing an article about improved air quality in large cities. This isn’t just about differing opinions on global warming; it’s a classic case of asymmetrical information updating. Both relatives process information in a way that reinforces their existing beliefs – and makes them feel better. 

Do you do the same thing when faced with new information? If so, that’s normal. Belief updating doesn’t happen as often as you might think. When a chance for a belief update arises, there’s a complex interplay between previous opinions, the nature of new knowledge, and emotional reactions to it. 

Although beliefs can be updated, facts alone rarely change people’s minds. That’s because our beliefs are influenced not only by evidence, but also by our emotions and social connections. Consider someone deeply committed to a political ideology, surrounded by like-minded peers. They might ignore opposing facts if it means losing their social ties. But what happens when new information aligns with their emotional and social beliefs? As it turns out, this can lead to more flexible thinking. Therefore, assessing the accuracy as well as the social and emotional context of information is crucial.

Is there another way to sway strongly held beliefs? Absolutely. Seek out so-called surprising validators: people who aren’t expected to hold a similar opinion but are credible to those who are considering alternatives. Additionally, find common ground and pave the way for agreement by emphasizing shared values.

Can a computer make better decisions than an expert? Welcome to the age of algorithms, where this isn’t just a possibility but an everyday reality. Algorithms are revolutionizing decision-making from legal judgments to medical diagnostics, often surpassing human accuracy. 

Yet despite their precision, there’s a catch – many people don’t trust them. Let’s take a brief look at how these digital decision-makers are shaping our world, for better or worse.