Superintelligence Buchzusammenfassung - das Wichtigste aus Superintelligence

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Zusammenfassung von Superintelligence

Name: Superintelligence
Rating: 4.2 (507 reviews)
Author: Nick Bostrom

Nick Bostrom

Paths, Dangers, Strategies

4.2 (507 Bewertungen)

18 Min.

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What’s in it for me? Learn how machines may surpass humanity.

How many movies, cartoons and sci-fi series have you seen featuring some kind of superintelligent robotic race? Probably quite a few. In some films, such as Terminator, they come to conquer the world; in others, they help us out; and in some, like Wall-E, they’re simply adorable. Of course, these robots are fictional, but will they always be? Will the future bring superintelligent AI? If it does, what will they look like and when will they appear?

In Superintelligence we learn about the journey toward AI so far – where we might be going; the moral issues and safety concerns we need to address; and the best ways to reach the goal of creating a machine that’ll outsmart all others.

In these blinks, you’ll discover

why most scientists believe we will reach superintelligence by 2105;
the difference between Artificial Intelligence and Whole Brain Emulation; and
how a 1956 conference in Dartmouth played a central role in creating the technology.

History shows that superintelligence – a technology more intelligent than any human being – is fast approaching.

What fundamentally sets us apart from the beasts of the field? Well, the main difference between human beings and animals is our capacity for abstract thinking paired with the ability to communicate and accumulate information. In essence, our superior intelligence propelled us to the top.

So what would the emergence of a new species, intellectually superior to humans, mean for the world?

First we’ll need to review a bit of history. For instance, did you know that the pace of major revolutions in technology has been increasing over time? For example, improving at the snail’s pace of a few hundred thousand years ago, human technology would have needed one million years to become economically productive enough to sustain the lives of an additional million people. This number dropped to two centuries during the Agricultural Revolution in 5,000 BC. And in our post-Industrial Revolution era it shrunk to a mere 90 minutes.

A technological advancement like the advent of superintelligent machines would mean radical change for the world as we know it. But where does technology stand at present?

We have already been able to create machines that have the capacity to learn and reason using information that’s been plugged in by humans. Consider, for example, the automated spam filters that keep our inboxes free from annoying mass emails and save important messages.

However, this is far from the kind of “general intelligence” humans possess, and which has been the goal of AI research for decades. And when it comes to building a superintelligent machine that can learn and act without the guiding hand of a human, it may still be decades away. But advancements in the field are happening quickly, so it could be upon us faster than we think. Such a machine would have a lot of power over our lives. Its intelligence could even be dangerous, since it would be too smart for us to disable in the event of an emergency.

The history of machine intelligence over the past half decade has had its ups and downs.

Since the invention of computers in 1940, scientists have been working to build a machine that can think. What progress has been made? One major advance in Artificial Intelligence (or AI) are man-made machines that mimic our own intelligence.

The story begins with the 1956 Dartmouth Summer Project, which endeavored to build intelligent machines that could do what humans do.

Superintelligence is likely to emerge in two different ways.

It’s clear that imitating human intelligence is an effective way to build technology, but imitation comes in many forms. So, while some scientists are in favor of synthetically designing a machine that simulates humans (through AI, for instance), others stand by an exact imitation of human biology, a strategy that could be accomplished with techniques like Whole Brain Emulation (or WBE).

So what are the differences between the two?

Superintelligence will either emerge quickly via strategic dominance or as a result of long collaborative efforts.

Most of the great discoveries of humanity were achieved either by a single scientist who reached a goal before others got there or through huge international collaborations. So, what would each route mean for the development of SI?

Well, if a single group of scientists were to rapidly find solutions to the issues preventing AI and WBE, it’s most likely their results would produce a single superintelligent machine. That’s because the field’s competitive nature might force such a group to work in secrecy.

We can prevent unintended catastrophes by programing superintelligence to learn human values.

You’ve probably heard it a million times, but there is some wisdom in being careful what you wish for. While we may be striving to attain superintelligence, how can we ensure that the technology doesn’t misunderstand its purpose and cause unspeakable devastation?

The key to this problem lies in programing the motivation for SI to accomplish its various human-given goals. Say we designed an SI to make paper clips; it seems benign, but what’s to prevent the machine from taking its task to an extreme and sucking up all the world’s resources to manufacture a mountain of office supplies?

Intelligent machines will probably replace the entire human workforce.

But enough about decimation and total destruction. Before panicking about the impending machine-led apocalypse, let’s take a look at how general intelligence technology can be developed and put to productive use.

It’s likely that the increasing availability and decreasing cost of technology will lead to the cheap mass production of machines capable of doing jobs that currently require the hands and mind of a human. This means that machines will not only replace the entire human workforce but will also be easily replaceable.

In the superintelligent future, the average human will be impoverished or reliant on investments; the rich will be buying new luxuries.

It’s clear that an entirely robotic workforce would completely transform the economy, as well as our lifestyles and desires; as machine labor becomes the new, cheaper norm, the pay of workers will drop so low that no human will be able to live off a paycheck. Also, the few employers of the mechanical workforce would accrue a lot of money.

But this brings us back to an earlier point, because where that money ends up also depends on whether SI is designed by a single exclusive group or is the result of a slow collaborative process. If the former turns out to be true, most people would be left with few options for income generation, likely renting housing to other humans or relying on their life-savings and pensions.

Safety must be a top priority before superintelligence is developed.

It’s clear that the development of SI comes with a variety of safety issues and, in the worst case scenario, could lead to the destruction of humankind. While we can take some precautions by considering the motivation for the SI we build, that alone won’t suffice.

So what will?

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Worum geht es in Superintelligence?

Superintelligence (2014) investigates how creating a machine more intelligent than a human would change humanity. These blinks are full of facts, figures and studies from a variety of disciplines, resulting in a complex picture of the superintelligent future and how we might arrive there.

Bestes Zitat aus Superintelligence

The fact that there are many paths that lead to superintelligence should increase our confidence that we will eventually get there.

—Nick Bostrom

Wer Superintelligence lesen sollte

Anyone working in computer science, neuroscience, robotics or mathematics
Fans of science fiction or theories about the human apocalypse
People interested in the moral questions surrounding the creation of artificial life forms

Über den Autor

Nick Bostrom is a professor at Oxford University and the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute. He has written over 200 publications, including Superintelligence, which earned a spot on the New York Times Best Seller list and was recommended by Bill Gates.

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