The Sleepwalkers summary

The alliance system began as an anti-war strategy, but eventually led to large polarized factions that raised the climate for war in 1914.

Before Europe divided itself into two groups, it was possible to prevent wars from spreading. In 1887 there were multiple, non-polarized, interlinked alliances that were designed to contain and de-escalate any conflict. Each alliance included a neutral power whose interests lied in brokering peace.

The traditional historical view is that Austria, in response to the assassination of their Crown Prince and aggressively encouraged by Germany, first bullied and then declared war on Serbia – and in doing so, triggered a fatal chain reaction.

But is this accusation fair? Well, partly.

The role that Germany and Austria played in provoking the outbreak of war is a well-known fact.

But two other nations also share the blame – Russia and France.

So far, we’ve looked at the war’s development in terms of nations’ actions. But, of course, nations are abstractions. It is the individuals and the governments the individuals comprise, who ultimately made the decisions to send their countries to war.

To understand how the Great War came about, we need to examine the popular opinions of this time.

As the inevitability of war became obvious to all involved, a Europe-wide realization took hold: better that this war occur sooner rather than later.

Why did the policymakers of each country come to the same conclusion? Let’s examine each country’s.

When we consider the actions of politicians and diplomats leading up to the First World War, one question stands out: Why did certain countries make such great mistakes when anticipating the actions of others? Why, for example, didn’t the Austrians anticipate Russia’s reaction to its invasion of Serbia? Or why did Russia mobilize against Germany when their dispute was with Austria?

One reason is that, in many countries, the system of government was muddled, to say the least.

To answer the question of whether the First World War was truly inevitable, it will help to look at one of the main factors in the outbreak: the alliance system and the resulting polarization of Europe.

While the various alliances appear strong in hindsight, the truth is they were malleable.

The assassination of Austria’s Franz Ferdinand was a shock to many, and triggered a major crisis.

But while it may appear that all hope for peace was lost, the fact is that several political leaders had tried to end the crisis peacefully.

In the previous blinks, we looked at many details and arguments on how the First World War broke out.

But many other facts remain unclear. For various reasons, it’s difficult to make definite statements about the war, based solely on old historical sources.