Risk Savvy Buchzusammenfassung - das Wichtigste aus Risk Savvy

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Zusammenfassung von Risk Savvy

Name: Risk Savvy
Rating: 3.7 (63 reviews)
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Gerd Gigerenzer

How To Make Good Decisions

3.7 (63 Bewertungen)

18 Min.

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Risk Savvy
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What’s in it for me? Learn how to make the best possible decisions.

All of us face countless decisions every single day: Do you jump out of bed at the sound of your alarm or hit the snooze button? Take the bus or drive to work? Get a loan to build a new house or stay in your old one?

No matter what the circumstances, you want to make the best choice possible. In order to do that, though, you need to have a good understanding of what’s possible as well as the limits of what’s knowable.

But figuring out the answers to these two simple questions opens up a whole new can of worms. How can you know what you don’t know? And how can you make good decisions knowing that there’s often great uncertainty regarding the consequences of your actions?

These blinks aim to add some clarity to the confusion by giving you the tools you need to make good decisions despite a lack of information. In addition, they’ll show you how to get the most out of the limited information you have by helping you to ask the right questions.

In these blinks, you’ll learn

how a simple rule of thumb saved the passengers of one airplane from imminent doom;
why testing positive for HIV isn’t a death sentence; and
how to prevent your defiant teenage children from going off the deep end.

Risk and uncertainty are fundamentally different.

What image comes to mind when you think about risk? Chances are good it’s a high-stakes poker game in Vegas. Risk, however, is actually far more subtle.

In essence, a risk is any situation in which you have many alternative outcomes, and are aware of them and the probability that they’ll occur.

People often mistakenly think that situations are risky even when they’re uncertain of the consequences. However, risk actually involves a great deal of certainty: you’re not only aware of the possible outcomes but also of the probability of each outcome.

When you play a slot machine, there are only so many possible combinations the machine can generate. A quick look at the design of the machine can give you valuable information on the frequency with which each combination is generated, and therefore how probable each combination is.

Knowing this, you can play slots confident that you’re at least aware of the dangers, since you can prepare for each possible outcome.

Sometimes, however, a situation has only one outcome. In this case, you don’t face risk but certainty. For example, when you place your hand on a hot stove, you know for certain that you’ll burn your hand.

This contrasts directly with uncertainty, i.e., not knowing the probabilities of all possible outcomes, or even not knowing what all the possible outcomes are.

For many, this sounds much like their definition of “risk.” For example, if you’re at a poker table in Vegas, you probably don’t know whether the player across the table has a pair of twos or a full house.

However, the variables in poker are knowable: since there are only so many cards in a deck, only so many possible combinations of cards are possible.

As a counterpoint, weather is often uncertain: tomorrow could be rainy, sunny, cloudy or even snowy – it depends on many factors, not all of which can be known.

People often mistake uncertainty for risk and risk for certainty.

When faced with a difficult situation, people sometimes think they’re taking a risk, but in actuality they’re facing uncertainty.

This often happens when people mistakenly believe they’ve accounted for all possible outcomes of a given situation but have nevertheless missed something crucial.

In order to make good decisions, we need to know how risks are calculated.

If you truly understand a situation’s risk, i.e., you know all the possible outcomes and their probabilities, you might think it’s easy to choose your best option: all you have to do is pick the possibility with the best odds, right? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple.

This has to do, in part, with the fact that risk can be calculated in more ways than one. In order to determine the probability of an outcome, you’ll need to consider things like frequency, design and believability.

Simple rules of thumb can help you make decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Sometimes, you have to make choices even when you can’t be certain of their consequences. So how do you choose the best course of action? It’s simpler than you think:

In situations when you’re faced with high uncertainty, you can make fast, sound decisions by using a rule of thumb, or a simple rule that only considers one piece of information and can be used without conscious effort.

Sometimes you have to accept that there’s no best option – so just trust your gut.

As we’ve seen, you can use rules of thumb to make sound decisions even in the case of uncertainty. But what if you’re stuck between a rock and a hard place where there simply is no best decision?

In order to choose the best of many options, you first have to be aware of all possibilities. But sometimes it’s impossible to know all the possibilities. Instead, try to pick one that’s “good enough,” knowing full well that it’s not necessarily the best.

Mistakes are nothing to fear – sometimes they can even bring you great rewards.

But no matter how varied and airtight our decision-making strategies are, people make mistakes. Still, there’s no reason to fret: mistakes are just as much a part of the decision-making process as logic and probability.

In fact, mistakes are important because they always teach you something. Indeed, many scientific discoveries were stumbled upon by mistake. Remember Christopher Columbus? He wanted to find a new route to India, but his entire expedition was based on entirely false assumptions about the diameter of the earth.

Risks are often presented in a misleading way that causes unnecessary panic.

As we’ve seen, the way that we calculate risks can change how we perceive them. Equally important to our perception of risk is how that information is conveyed.

In medicine, risk can be presented in terms of relative risk, which is measured in relation to previously known facts, or absolute risk, which describes the probability of a medical event. Choosing one presentation over another can entirely change our perception of an event.

With the right information and approach, you can be risk savvy.

Becoming risk savvy isn’t something that only the best and brightest of us can achieve. In fact, anyone can understand risk if the information is presented properly and if they ask the right questions.

As we’ve seen, understanding risk isn’t about having all the information – it’s about understanding that you don’t have it all. In fact, having all the information you need to make a completely informed decision is generally impossible.

We have an obligation to teach children how to manage risk.

If we want our society to be risk savvy, we can never start too early. Teaching children about risk is the best way to ensure that they’ll make good decisions.

Just like with adults, getting children to understand risk comes down to presenting them with the right information in the right way.

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Worum geht es in Risk Savvy?

Risk Savvy is an exploration into the way we misunderstand risk and uncertainty, often at great expense to our health, finances and relationships. However, if we better understand risk, we can develop the tools necessary to navigate this highly complex world without having to become an “expert in everything.”

Bestes Zitat aus Risk Savvy

Fact:
One out of every 26 positive HIV tests is wrong.

—Gerd Gigerenzer

Wer Risk Savvy lesen sollte

Anyone whose decisions greatly affect others
People involved in the finance industry
Anyone who wants to make better decisions in their lives

Über den Autor

Gerd Gigerenzer is a psychologist and director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy, both of which are in Germany. In addition, he has authored several books on decision making such as Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty and Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious.

Kategorien mit Risk Savvy

Psychologie Persönliche Entwicklung

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