How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most
Farsighted by Steven Johnson sheds light on the art of decision making. Johnson advises to counterintuitively embrace complexity of challenges and build adaptable, diverse networks. Learn how to navigate uncertain situations and succeed.
In the summer of 1776, the Revolutionary War in North America was in full swing. The Americans, led by George Washington, sought to break free from the shackles of British rule. But the British refused to let go. As they massed their navy with New York in their sights, Washington was left in a quandary. Although it was clear that an attack was coming, it was less clear how the British would launch it.
This lesson from history demonstrates just how complex decision-making in real-life situations can be.
Washington was faced with what’s known as a full-spectrum decision. That means numerous factors had to be taken into account for the right decision to be made.
In the battle for New York, Washington had a lot to think about. Where were there landing sites for British ships on the New York coast? What effect would the strong currents of the East River have in moving his own troops from New York to Brooklyn?
Washington also had to consider the damage British cannons could do against New York’s fortifications and the potential risk of life for his own soldiers in pitched battle. He even had to consider the internal American politics in the Continental Congress, which demanded that he stand firm against the British.
Needless to say, Washington had a tough time deciding what to do, and eventually, he found himself making the wrong decision. He actually erred in the very first one he made. He shouldn’t even have tried to defend New York at all. Since the superior British outnumbered his forces, it would have been much easier to retreat inland. But this mistake is not unique to Washington – we are often prone to forget our blind spots when making decisions.
There’s a name for this common error in human reasoning. It’s known as loss aversion. Studies repeatedly show it to be a characteristic innate to humans. We prefer to resist losses than to seek gains, even when it’d be better in the long run to do the opposite. Washington, however, was smart enough not to stick it out until his troops were completely crushed. Once his forces began to lose, he quickly signaled the retreat. He was still a born leader, and the Revolutionary War would eventually be won, despite the many difficult decisions along the way.
Farsighted (2018) is concerned with the complexity of decision-making. It demonstrates why decision-making can be so difficult, and how hard it can be to predict the outcome of any given decision. Farsighted also provides some helpful tools that can help anyone make better decisions, despite the difficulties.
You could fill an entire library wing with histories of people who failed to see momentous developments coming.
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Blink 3 von 12 - Eine kurze Geschichte der Menschheit
von Yuval Noah Harari
