Brave New War summary

Ever since the concept was first established in the treaty of Westphalia in 1648, the sovereign nation state has been the most powerful entity in global society. States have asserted control over their economies, security, people and communications, while crushing possible rivals for this control, like religions, tribal loyalties and empires.

But the emergence of new technologies has begun to erode the power of the state. The most obvious example of this is the internet, where people can share ideas openly and buy goods and services from almost anywhere on the planet. This means states can no longer control their economies or their citizens’ access to new ideas.

The weakening power and security problems of the nation-state can be seen in its constant struggle to keep terrorists, drug cartels and international gangs at bay. This phenomenon is likely to continue.

Across the globe, various criminal groups are likely to continue gaining power. These groups can have many forms, including terrorists and insurgents, as well as international gangs engaging in human smuggling, counterfeit goods, drugs and so forth. These groups are known as global guerillas.

In 2004, Iraqi insurgents decided to sabotage an oil pipeline in their country. After careful planning, they proceeded to blast a hole into it, creating an enormous oil spill. It took the authorities in Iraq a week to fix the pipeline, by which time the oil lost had cost the struggling Iraqi economy over $500 million in export revenues. The mission had cost the insurgents a mere thousand dollars, so their effective return on investment was an astounding multiple of 250,000.

This is a prime example of a tactic increasingly used by global guerillas: systems disruption. Systems disruption involves deliberately targeting key points in the processes vital for a society. This does not necessarily mean oil, but could also be areas like transport, electricity and communication networks. Rather than trying to maximize casualties, which was their previous tactic, systems disruption allows the groups to inflict the most damage on their target states with the least cost to themselves. 

Over the past decade, the development of software has been greatly accelerated through the use of open-source networks. In such networks, one person or group may develop a piece of software and then share it with other people so they can also work on improving it. An example of this is Apache, a dominant web server developed by hordes of programmers collaborating through open source networks.

Just like software designers, such open-source networks are also increasingly used by global guerillas to share and develop their tactics. This is known as open-source warfare (OSW), where potential tactics, targets, weapons and so forth are openly discussed between various groups, with each group testing, improving on and sharing successful ideas. This is made possible by the internet, where global guerrillas from all over the world can share ideas and form mutual strategies.

After coalition forces invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein’s regime, an insurgency against the occupying forces and the new government of Iraq ensued. Though official figures suggested that between one and three thousand insurgents were being killed or captured each month, the insurgency continued. How could they do this with such losses?

To understand this phenomenon, it’s first important to look at an analogy from the realm of business, where globalization and the internet have revolutionized the way that markets work.

The nation-state has long provided security for its citizens through centralized bodies like the military, the police and security services. Today, however, this method is becoming less and less effective.

That’s because the threats we face change constantly and it’s difficult for our existing security systems to keep up. It seems we’re always one step behind the global guerillas, learning from previous attacks but never anticipating the next ones.

As we have seen, today’s society is too inflexible and interconnected to effectively deal with the threat of global guerillas who can inflict massive damage with little cost to themselves.

Fortunately, there is a remedy: decentralizing our vital systems. This would make them more robust in the face of an attack.