Super Crunchers Buchzusammenfassung - das Wichtigste aus Super Crunchers

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Zusammenfassung von Super Crunchers

Name: Super Crunchers
Rating: 3.6 (23 reviews)
Author: Ian Ayres

Ian Ayres

Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to be Smart

3.6 (23 Bewertungen)

13 Min.

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Decision-Making Big Data

Inhaltsübersicht

Super Crunchers
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What’s in it for me? Discover the power of numbers.

Our hyper-connected, high-speed digital age generates vast amounts of data that can overwhelm or, if wrangled by skilled number crunchers, transform the way we live and do business. Today, no project is complete without the backing of expertly interpreted large data sets.

In big organizations, medicine and social work – even in small businesses and sports agencies – number crunching is used to discover hidden connections between seemingly unrelated things.

In these blinks, you’ll discover how number crunching is the ultimate skill for facilitating decision making, and you’ll be introduced to its many different uses.

You’ll also learn

how to to invest in good wines;
how number crunching can detect auction fraud; and
how data sets shape policies.

Super crunching has applications in a wide range of fields, such as wine dealing and baseball.

Super crunching might sound like something from a video game, but it refers to the statistical analysis of large data sets – and its applications are nearly endless. Let’s start with some surprising examples.

Super crunching can be used to predict the future quality of vintage wine – indispensable knowledge for wine dealers.

A high-quality red wine is an investment because it gets better as time goes on. This means wine dealers need to be able to predict a wine’s future value.

Orley Ashenfelter, an economist and wine enthusiast, has found a way to accurately predict the quality of Bordeaux wines by analyzing historical relationships between weather and the price of wine.

Ashenfelter has found that each centimeter of winter rain raises the expected price of a wine by 0.00117 dollars. His analysis is so accurate that wine dealers now use it to determine whether or not they should buy a wine, and at what price.

Super crunching can also be applied to baseball. Bill James, a baseball writer, has done for baseball what Ashenfelter did for wine.

James challenged the assumption that baseball experts could assess talent simply by watching the players. He postulated that data-based analysis of players’ previous form in the game would be superior – and he was right!

Traditional talent scouts had little faith in Jeremy Brown, an aspiring player who was overweight, but James’s calculations said otherwise. The Oakland A’s decided to sign Brown based on James’s analysis of his past runs and the decision turned out to be a wise one: Jeremy Brown had his major league debut in September 2006.

Regression is a super crunching technique that allows you to predict future events and uncover patterns in the past.

Most people feel that statistics are rather dry, but what if statistics could help you find true love or detect fraud? Regression, a powerful super crunching technique, can do both of these things.

Regression is about assessing historical data to determine how different factors influence a certain variable of interest. It worked in the wine and baseball examples. Let’s look in more detail at two further ways it can be applied.

Randomized testing is a super crunching tool that’s very effective in medical and business research.

Super crunching isn’t just about analyzing the future and past – it’s also changing the medical and business worlds. Randomized testing, a powerful super crunching technique, is already reshaping medical and business research.

Randomized trials are crucial for determining whether or not a medical treatment is effective. Let’s say you wanted to find out whether chemotherapy is more effective than radiation in treating cancer. You’d probably have to control for a number of factors, like the patient’s diet, age or lifestyle habits. Otherwise those small variables could impact the outcome of your research, like if, for example, more people in the chemotherapy treatment group smoked than their counterparts in the radiation group.

Governments and NGOs can use randomized testing to determine which policies to implement.

Want to influence society? Run a randomized experiment! Randomized testing is changing more than our medicine and businesses – it’s changing our public policy too.

Politicians can use data generated through randomized trials to decide what policies to enact. In fact, policy experiments are already underway in a number of countries.

Super crunching is more accurate than traditional human expertise because all humans are dogged by personal biases.

We’ve seen some examples of how super crunching is already reshaping our world, but what role do humans play in all this? Can mathematical equations really tell us more than traditional experts, with their years of experience and human intuition?

The answer is yes. Super crunching outperforms traditional expertise in almost every case.

Super crunching changes the role of traditional experts but it doesn’t render them useless.

Lots of experts who base their decisions on personal experience and intuition feel threatened by the rise of super crunching. After all, it seems to undermine their work.

Super crunching actually threatens a whole range of professionals. Loan officers, for example, are completely irrelevant now.

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Worum geht es in Super Crunchers?

From building a wine cellar to finding your happily ever after, modern life is increasingly ruled by number crunching and algorithms. Super Crunchers (2007) is about the sheer power of the large data sets that are fed into algorithms and the way they’re revolutionizing our businesses, medical treatment and even our governments.

Bestes Zitat aus Super Crunchers

Indeed, because of super crunching, firms sometimes may be able to make more accurate predictions about how youll behave than you could ever make yourself.

—Ian Ayres

Wer Super Crunchers lesen sollte

Anyone interested in the power of statistics
Computer and math nerds
Business owners, politicians and baseball coaches

Über den Autor

Ian Ayres is a lawyer, econometrician and professor at both Yale’s Law School and School of Management. He’s also a columnist for Forbes, a regular commentator on Marketplace and the author of several books including Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done.

Kategorien mit Super Crunchers

Economics Management & Leadership

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